525
FXUS63 KOAX 181749
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1249 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE 10-20%
- SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE TWO OF HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR.
HEAT INDEX VALUES ON SUNDAY WILL REACH 100 TO 108 DEGREES.
MONDAY WILL BE EVEN MORE OPPRESSIVE IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-110 DEGREES.
- NIGHTTIME HEAT INDEX VALUES 73-77 DEGREES WILL NOT PROVIDE
MUCH RELIEF. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ON SUNDAY ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THIS WILL BE EXPANDED ON MONDAY.
- COOLER WEATHER RETURNS BY MIDWEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE 80S. ALONG WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
QUIET AND WARM THIS EVENING UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH
TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 PM STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS, HIGHEST NEAR THE NE/SD BORDER AND IN URBAN AREAS. A
FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE HINT AT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW- LYING AREA.
HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN SHOW WINDS ALOFT WILL STAY
UP A BIT, SO IT SHOULD BE PRETTY PATCHY IF IT DOES DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN.
THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE THIS EVENING WAS A SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MN, ACROSS SD, AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST
NE. THIS WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH CAMS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WE'LL HAVE AT LEAST
SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT. LITTLE TO
NO SHEAR TO WORK WITH ALONG THE BOUNDARY, BUT GIVEN THE WARM,
HUMID AIRMASS AND ENHANCED MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY,
COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FROM DOWNBURSTS. HOWEVER, SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, IT'LL BE HOT AND HUMID
ONCE AGAIN, BUT THINK THE AFOREMENTIONED PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS, BUT STILL
EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST WITH SOME HEAT INDICES
CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 100S.
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL START TO PUSH IN SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY WITH NAEFS AND EPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 850 MB TEMPS REACH
22-25 C SUNDAY AND 25-28 C RANGE BY MONDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW WE SHOULD HAVE NO ISSUES MIXING INTO THOSE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT, MEANING TEMPERATURES MAY START TO APPROACH
OR EXCEED 100 ON SUNDAY, AND LIKELY EXCEED IT ON MONDAY (50-80%
CHANCE AT A GIVEN SPOT). ONE THING TO WATCH FOR SUNDAY WILL BE
REMNANT CLOUD COVER IN THE MORNING OR EVEN SOME SPOTTY PRECIP IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION NUDGING INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT
DURING THE DAY. SHOULD THIS PAN OUT, TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
NEEDING TO BE BUMPED DOWN. SIMILAR STORY FOR MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO CRASH INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT, BUT STILL SOME
QUESTIONS ON EXACT TIMING. FOR NOW, KEEPING THE HEAT ADVISORY
AS-IS FOR NORTHEAST NE ON SUNDAY AND HOLDING OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES FOR MONDAY GIVEN THE QUESTION OF CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. I'D GIVE IT A 50-70% CHANCE THAT WE'LL
NEED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MONDAY WITH THE MAIN QUESTION BEING
HOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO INCLUDE.
BEHIND THAT FRONT, WE'LL SEE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP TO OUR WEST
AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. RIGHT
NOW, OUR HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY (40-60% CHANCE) AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
(30-40% CHANCE). FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, VARIOUS MACHINE LEARNING
SEVERE WEATHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE LOW WITH THESE CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY IS DETECTING INCREASING CUMULUS
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. COVERAGE IS IN THE FEW-SCT
CATEGORY AT FL040-FL060. A WEAK FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST DOMAIN. AFTERNOON HEATING, MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
FRONT AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY <20%, AND DO NOT HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ADDING TO THE TAF SITES. ANY ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 19/02-03Z. THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
QUIET, WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUDS BLO FL120 AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-012-016-
017.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...FORTIN
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