124
FXUS63 KOAX 190534
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1234 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY AND
THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY. EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO
110 RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN
IN THE MID 70S, PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF.
- THERE ARE SPOTTY STORM CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
10-20% RANGE, BUT IF STORMS DEVELOP, A FEW COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- COOLER WEATHER RETURNS BY MIDWEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE 80S. ALONG WITH MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
EVENING ANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG THE IA/MO
BORDER INTO CENTRAL NE AND NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NE/WY/SD
BORDER AREA, MORE AS A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT. THIS FEATURE WILL
PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, REACHING THE
NE/IA BORDER TOWARD EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON. SEVERAL PIECES OF
GUIDANCE HINT AT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THAT
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, MODEL SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOW A
VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, SO WOULDN'T RULE OUT
AT LEAST SOME PATCHY DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY WITH
DEWPOINTS HANGING IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AS OF 10 PM AND LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE VALUES. ANOTHER
FEATURE OF NOTE THIS EVENING WAS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY
SLIDING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN WY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SD, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE IS
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THEY DIE OFF PRIOR TO GETTING
HERE, BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA, THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF
REDEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THAT BOUNDARY BY THE AFTERNOON AS
THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES DIVING SOUTHEAST. ONCE AGAIN, NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME GUSTY
WINDS OR SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN WEATHER OF NOTE ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST, AND NEAR 100 NEAR THE NE/SD BORDER.
HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT NEAR 100 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NE HITTING 105, WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE IN EFFECT. OF COURSE, ANY PRECIP COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
TEMPERATURES IN A FEW AREAS IF IT DOES DEVELOP.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOME ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES INTO SD, CO-LOCATED WITH THE NOSE OF
SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST, POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING SOME STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD ON TRACK OF THESE STORMS, WITH SOME GUIDANCE (19.00Z
HRRR) SUGGESTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NE AND WEST-CENTRAL IA
COULD GET CLIPPED BY SOME DISSIPATING, BUT STILL STRONG OR MAYBE
EVEN SEVERE STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT SAID, A VAST MAJORITY
OF OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THEM OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST, SO GIVING IT
ABOUT A 10% CHANCE WE SEE ANYTHING. IT'LL SEEMINGLY COME DOWN TO
WHERE THE PRIMARY CAPE GRADIENT/AXIS SETS UP.
EVEN WARMER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR MONDAY WITH NAEFS AND EPS
MEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 25-28+ C, GOOD FOR THE 90TH-99TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MIXING THAT
DOWN WOULD EASILY GIVE US HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S, BUT
GIVEN GUIDANCE'S PROPENSITY TO OVERSHOOT TEMPERATURES AND
UNDER-DO DEWPOINTS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
IN THAT DIRECTION. STILL, LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO
LOWER 100S WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO LOCALLY 110. AS A RESULT,
EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY ON MONDAY TO COVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL START PUSHING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND SHOULD BRING US SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS, WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WE'LL HAVE AT LEAST A LITTLE
SHEAR TO KEEP STORMS ORGANIZED. IN ADDITION, GIVEN THE HOT AND
HUMID AIRMASS, WE'LL HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. SO
WE'LL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE
FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA, WITH SPC CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING A
LEVEL 1 OF 5 (MARGINAL) RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOR WHAT
IT'S WORTH, VARIOUS MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE WEATHER GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES UP FOR OUR AREA.
DEFINITELY A TIMEFRAME TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH, ESPECIALLY IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH THE PRIMARY RIDGE AXIS BEING PUSHED
TO OUR WEST, WE'LL FINALLY SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. WE'LL ALSO SEE INCREASING SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY (40-60% CHANCE FOR BOTH
TIMEFRAMES). MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE WEATHER GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST OUR POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE CHANCES
WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW.
FOR NEXT WEEKEND, SIGNS ARE POINTING TOWARD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AND WARMER AIR RETURNING, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S AND
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AT LEAST A 30-50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING
95 DEGREES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
FOG AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE IMMEDIATE TAF
PERIOD, WITH A LAYER OF CLOUDS FROM FL025-035 EXTENDING FROM
KOFK TO KOMA THAT IS GENERALLY SLIDING SOUTHWARD. AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA/MISSOURI WILL SEE A BAND
OF PATCHY FOG DEVELOP, WITH KLNK BEING THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE IT
(40% CHANCE), RESULTING IN AREAS OF MVFR OR WORSE VISIBILITY
FROM 09-13Z. THE AREAS OF FOG SHOULD BE RATHER NARROW, SO IT'S
DURATION WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES SOUTHWARD.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL RESUME OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS
MORNING, AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT UNDER 10 KTS. THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE FOR KOMA TO SEE A POP-UP SHOWER/STORM OR TWO FROM 20-23Z,
WITH CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ015-018-
030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-
012-016-017.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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