637
FXUS63 KOAX 191834
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
134 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TODAY AND
THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY. EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 105 TO
110. OVERNIGHT HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 75 TO 80.
- THERE IS A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, LATER
TONIGHT, AND MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.
- COOLER WEATHER RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 80S. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY ALSO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
A STALLED FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SEPARATES THE WORST OF THE HEAT FROM SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY. ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA,
TEMPERATURES PUSH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WITH HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING 105 THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT DUE TO THESE EXPECTED HEAT INDICES. ELSEWHERE IN NEBRASKA
REMAINS HOT IN THE MID 90S. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IS IN PLACE OVER WESTERN IOWA.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE RIDGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS MAY INITIATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE FRONT, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW (10-20%). ADDITIONALLY, A
WEAKENING CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS MAY CLIP
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATER TONIGHT. AGAIN THIS THREAT
REMAINS LOW (10-20% CHANCE). THIS WEAKENING CLUSTER COULD ALSO
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS.
THE PEAK OF THE HEATWAVE BEGINS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE STALLED
FRONT LIFTS NORTH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO FALL THROUGH THE MID 70S WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN
75 TO 80 ANTICIPATED FOR MANY. THIS OFFERS LITTLE RELIEF BEFORE
THE AFTERNOON HEAT. SPEAKING OF HEAT, THE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE REGION HELPING TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO BETWEEN 100-105
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 TO 110. AS A
RESULT, AN AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY.
ON TOP OF THE HEAT IS THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
HELPS PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE FORCING MAY BE LIMITED, WE SHOULD EASILY
REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE, SO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE FRONT REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT NEAR AND AFTER SUNSET
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
AND BETTER FORCING ARRIVES. THE OVERALL THREAT REMAINS LOW
THROUGH THIS TIME (10-20% CHANCE), BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
FORM COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUD
BASES AND LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW CLOUD BASE AS A RESULT
OF THE HEAT.
QUIETER WEATHER RETURNS ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S AS A RESULT. EVEN COOLER WEATHER SETTLES
IN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AIDED BY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER AS
SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS ROUND THE RIDGE AND PASS NEAR THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE A WELCOMED
CHANGE. CURRENTLY, THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
BETWEEN 50-70% ARE ANTICIPATED. UNFORTUNATELY, THE RIDGE MAY
BEGIN TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES AND A DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND
FL060. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A
WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME THE
THREAT IS LOW (20% CHANCE). TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IF
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DOES DEVELOP AND CAUSE AVIATION
IMPACTS, MAINLY AT OMA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE
SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ015-018-
030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-016-017.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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