237
FXUS63 KOAX 200528
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1228 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 110 WITH
OVERNIGHT HEAT INDICES REMAINING IN THE 70S.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (10-20% CHANCE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
WEST-CENTRAL IOWA). DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
- COOLER WEATHER RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 80S AND EVEN SOME 70S
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- WARM WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
EVENING ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NE INTO SOUTHWEST IA AND SLOWLY
PUSHING EASTWARD. TO THE NORTHWEST, A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS
AND EVEN A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG A WIND
SHIFT ACROSS SD INTO WESTERN NE, BUT HAD SINCE LARGELY
DISSIPATED AS OF 930 PM WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT AND WEAKER
SHEAR THIS DIRECTION. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
NOTHING ADDITIONAL WILL FORM. HOWEVER, GIVEN PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AND STRENGTHENING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS
WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WOULDN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANOTHER
STORM POPPING UP WITH POTENTIAL FOR IT TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WINDS IF IT DOES. ONE OTHER THING OF NOTE OVERNIGHT WILL BE SOME
FOG POTENTIAL ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT, MAINLY IN
WITHIN A COUNTY OR TWO OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP IT SOMEWHAT
PATCHY, BUT WE DID SEE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THAT SAME BOUNDARY LAST
NIGHT/THIS MORNING.
WITH THE WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST, THE WARMEST AIR OF THE
YEAR THUS FAR LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR MONDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH LATEST SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE GIVING A 60 TO 100% CHANCE OF HITTING AT LEAST 100
DEGREES NEAR AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. IN ADDITION, DEWPOINTS
LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, YIELDING HEAT
INDICES IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH 10 PM FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
BY THE AFTERNOON, ATTENTION TURNS TO STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CHANCES
AS A COLD FRONT STARTS TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. LATEST
CAMS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE SEE SCATTERED STORMS START TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST NE INTO WEST-CENTRAL IA BY 3-
4 PM. ONCE AGAIN, PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, BUT STRONGEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE CONFINED BEHIND THE FRONT. THAT SAID,
THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH OVERLAP RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO YIELD
SOME DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AS STORMS
COLLAPSE, WITH DEEP INVERTED V MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL SOME QUESTIONS
ON HOW FAR SOUTH THESE STORMS WILL MAKE IT, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
CONFINES THEM TO AREAS NORTH OF AN EAST-WEST LINE THROUGH THE OMAHA
METRO. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS LOOKING POSSIBLE (20-
30% CHANCE) OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THESE LOOK
UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE WITH MOST OF THE INSTABILITY SCOURED OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WE'LL SEE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY LOOK TO REMAIN
CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S, BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY, AND
EVEN A FEW SPOTS STAYING STUCK IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY. SOMETHING
ELSE TO NOTE IS THAT LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE A
LITTLE SMOKE MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE WITH THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
FRONT. AT THIS POINT, CONCENTRATIONS LOOK LIKE THEY'LL BE RATHER
LOW, BUT MAYBE JUST ENOUGH TO NOTICE. OTHERWISE, WE'LL ALSO SEE SOME
HIGHER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A
COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SLIDE THROUGH WITH A DECENT SURFACE LOW
PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH (40-70% CHANCE BOTH NIGHTS). SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK MINIMAL (UNDER 5%) WITH VERY LITTLE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
NOW FOR SOME UNFORTUNATE NEWS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT BROUGHT
US THE HEAT LOOKS TO EDGE BACK EASTWARD FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
LOOKING TO GET BACK INTO UPPER 80S AND 90S. ON TOP OF THAT, LONG
TERM OUTLOOKS FAVOR WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF KOMA NEAR THE NE/IA/MO
BORDER REGION FROM 09-13Z. OTHERWISE, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SPEEDS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS. A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE TERMINALS AFTER 18Z TOMORROW, SERVING ALSO AS A
FOCUS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT (20-40%
CHANCE), WITH THE BEST BET FOR STORMS BEING EAST OF KOMA AFTER
21Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ015-018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-
078-088>093.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-016-
017.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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