102
FXUS63 KOAX 211043
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
543 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH 10
AM TUESDAY, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. A
FEW COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL, BUT SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- COOLER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WARM WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD
90S BY SUNDAY..
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
ASIDE FROM A COUPLE POP UP STORMS EARLIER, IT HAD BEEN PRETTY
QUIET ACROSS THE REGION AS THE WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT
CONTINUED ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. THAT SAID, A
FEW STORMS HAD STARTED TO POP UP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA AS OF 1030 PM. WITH THE FRONT QUICKLY SCOURING
OUT INSTABILITY, THESE SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED, BUT A FEW
COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 1-2 AM.
GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS WE'LL SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT WELL BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CLIPS THE
AREA AND WE SEE A LITTLE STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS AS
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW RAMPS UP. HOWEVER, WITH LACK OF
INSTABILITY, NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE, AND
EVEN LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN.
THAT PRECIP SHOULD EXIT SOUTH/DISSIPATE TOWARD 9-10 AM AND GIVE
WAY TO A WARM, BUT MUCH MORE "MANAGEABLE" DAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND A NICE NORTH BREEZE. THE HRRR ALSO
CONTINUES TO SHOW SMOKE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT KEEPS
NEAR-SURFACE CONCENTRATIONS RATHER LOW, WITH UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY SHOWING NO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, SO
THINKING IT'LL MANIFEST MAINLY AS SOME MILKY LOOKING SKIES.
WE'LL BE MUCH COOLER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS GETS PUSHED WELL BACK TO OUR WEST AND A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ALL THREE DAYS. IN ADDITION, WE'LL HAVE
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST NOW LOOKS TO
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SECOND STRONGER AND MORE
PERSISTENT STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVING EARLY THURSDAY
AND LINGERING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CHANCES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
40-80% RANGE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHEST
BEING MOSTLY IN SOUTHEAST NE, WHERE CONSENSUS PAINTS A 30- 50%
CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN. DEFINITELY STILL SOME TIMING
KINKS TO WORK OUT AS WE GET CLOSER, AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE RAIN AND PEOPLE WILL CERTAINLY WANT TO
GET OUT AND ENJOY THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
UNFORTUNATELY, THOSE NICER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES BACK EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ON
SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD 90S SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A COUPLE ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES IN THERE AS THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS RETURNS AND A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW, BUT STILL LOTS OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT THERE.
AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES GO, VARIOUS MACHINE LEARNING
ALGORITHMS GENERALLY KEEP US AROUND OR UNDER 5% OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH THE MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS BEING MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. EVEN STILL, THE BAND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT TWO HOURS, WITH KLNK COMPLETELY IN THE CLEAR BY 12-13Z.
LATER THIS MORNING, WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THAT LAST UNTIL 00Z BEFORE DROPPING
OFF TO BELOW 10 KTS. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL DRIFT INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AT THE LATTER FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD
INTO THE NEXT, BUT SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THIS MORNING'S
ACTIVITY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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