793
FXUS63 KOAX 211705
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1205 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE WILL
BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WARM WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD
90S BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A FEW SUB-SEVERE STORMS DOTTED THE SKY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
MORNING, PRODUCING SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL AND A BIT OF SMALL HAIL.
THE WEAK STORMS GRADUALLY DISSIPATED AS THEY MOVED SOUTH, MAKING WAY
FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND QUIET DAY. SKIES REMAINED HAZY AS SMOKE
FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES RODE IN ON THE NORTHERLY WINDS. BY NOON
TEMPERATURES HAD REACHED THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
HEAT INDICES ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH SOME
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING, BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BY NOON,
AND TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE DAY LIKELY WON'T BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT, WITH BREAKS IN THE RAIN
ALLOWING FOLKS TO GET OUT AND ENJOY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
ADDITIONAL BURSTS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL NOT ONLY BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, BUT ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S EXPECTED FRIDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR 1" OR
MORE OF RAIN ARE AROUND 50-60%.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...
UNFORTUNATELY, OUR COOL DOWN LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED, AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
BACK INTO THE 90S ON SATURDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES FLIRTING WITH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
A FEW SHORTWAVES MAY RIPPLE AROUND THE OUTER PERIMETER OF THE RIDGE,
BRINGING OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. BUT, THIS FAR OUT, THE DETAILS
AREN'T CERTAIN. OVERALL, CPC OUTLOOKS REMAIN WARM AND MACHINE
LEARNING OUTLOOKS KEEP US LOCKED INTO A 5-15% CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS THROUGH EARLY AUGUST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL GUST UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE DIMINISHING AND
BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AT THE TAIL
END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE AT KOFK
AROUND 14Z WEDNESDAY, AND REACH KLNK AND KOMA AROUND 15-18Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
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