222
FXUS63 KOAX 222340
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
640 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE 70S.
- THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH TOTALS APPROACHING 1 TO 2 INCHES IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND, WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES POTENTIALLY REACHING 105 TO 110 DEGREES BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW A MID-
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE RED RIVER, WITH THE REGION POSITIONED
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE. MEANWHILE, AN
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS HAS BROUGHT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND USHERED CAA INTO THE AREA. THIS, COMBINED WITH
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER, HAS KEPT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO THE
70S.
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION HAS SUPPORTED LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK WAA ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA, RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POPS OF 30-50%. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA, WHERE WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY OF 300-400 J/KG
MUCAPE IS PRESENT. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS
EVENING, WITH MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF PRECIPITATION AND LOCALIZED POCKETS PEAKING AROUND
0.25".
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES AND INCREASES POPS TO 50-80%. A
BAND OF MODERATE RAINFALL SHOULD DEVELOP FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA NEAR THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA, WITH AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
EFFICIENT RAINFALL. PWAT VALUES WILL APPROACHING 2 INCHES (ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE OF SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY), WHILE WARM-CLOUD DEPTHS
INCREASE TO AROUND 4 TO 4.5 KM. RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD REACH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES.
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, AND WPC MAINTAINS
A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HOWEVER, RECENT DRY
CONDITIONS AND ONGOING CROP WATER USAGE SHOULD MAKE FLASH-FLOOD
GUIDANCE DIFFICULT TO EXCEED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE
FARTHER NORTH, WHERE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED THROUGH THE DAY. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL AGAIN
HOLD HIGHS IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE REGION. A RENEWED NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, WITH POPS OF 60-90%. EFFICIENT
RAINFALL INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE, LEADING TO LOCALIZED BANDS OF
0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS DEVELOP.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FRIDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDING WILL AMPLIFY AND EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES
AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE AND
SHOULD MIX EFFICIENTLY TO THE SURFACE BOTH DAYS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 90S, WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 70S, RESULTING IN
MUGGY CONDITIONS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FURTHER SUNDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AND PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 104 TO 109 DEGREES. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASE.
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO ROUND THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK, GRADUALLY DAMPENING IT AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO EASE.
HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S MONDAY BEFORE FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BY WEDNESDAY. LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE REMAINS INCONSISTENT REGARDS THE TRACKS OF THESE
DISTURBANCES, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS KEEPING THEM FARTHER NORTH AND
OTHER BRINGING THEM THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. THIS UNCERTAINTY
SUPPORTS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTED HIGHS AND PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH POPS GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 15- 30%.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LINGERING
CEILINGS AT 5000-7000 FT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING, BUT LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST TAF SITES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
DRY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EARLY
THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES MOVING TOWARD LNK IN THE
AFTERNOON AND REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF OMA AND OFK. CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF DROP TO MVFR WITH ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT TO SETTLE AT SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
SPEEDS HOVERING AROUND 10 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...CA
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