935
FXUS63 KOAX 241854
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
154 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDS THIS WEEKEND, WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES REACHING NEAR 105 ON SATURDAY AND 105 TO 115
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE OMAHA METRO INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
DRIZZLE AND FOG WERE SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AND TEMPS
HAVE STRUGGLED TO MANAGE 70F BY 1PM UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. WE DO
EXPECT TO SEE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS THE
SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ASCENT EJECTS EAST. THIS
CLEARING, HUMID LOW LEVELS, AND SLOWING SFC WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT BY SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE FOR FOG
OBSERVATIONS IS HIGHER THAN WHAT IS TYPICAL. DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HIT ZERO.
SATURDAY
HEAT DOMINATES THE WEEKEND'S FORECAST. FOR SATURDAY, TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM TRIPLE DIGITS IN ANTELOPE, KNOX, AND CEDAR COUNTIES
TO THE NORTH, TO LOWER 90S IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AS RIDGING ELBOWS
IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SUNSHINE WITH TDS PUSHING INTO THE
70S. THE GFS IS CONTINUING TO OVER-MIX, A KNOWN SUMMER
PROBLEM... WHICH BLEEDS INTO THE NBM. THIS LEAVES NBM DEWPOINTS
A BIT LOW ON AVG, SO I'VE REMEDIED THAT. AS IT STANDS, MAX HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL MEET 105 FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKAN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY
BEGINS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AT NOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO
THE MIDDLE TO LOWER-70S ON SATURDAY NIGHT SIMPLY INCREASES THE
HEAT- RELATED ILLNESS RISK AND IS ANOTHER REASON TO PLAY IT
LIBERAL WITH THE HEAT HEADLINES. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO COOL
HOMES WITH NO A/C.
SUNDAY
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING IN THE NEED FOR THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH TO
BE REPLACED BY AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR SUNDAY AND FRANKLY,
IT'S LIKELY (85%) TO BE EXPANDED WESTWARD, REPLACING THE HEAT
ADVISORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PLAINS BEYOND THE
OMAHA METRO. COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES LEAD ME TO
HOLD OFF ON HEADLINE CHANGES FOR NOW.
WITH A BUMP UP IN DEWPOINTS AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES, MAX HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 107 IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO NEAR
111 ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA. SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY AGAIN AND THERE
DOESN'T LOOK TO BE MUCH FOR POSSIBLE FAILURE POINTS, ALTHOUGH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MINNESOTA IS WORTH MONITORING IN CASE
OF A TRACK CHANGE.
MONDAY
MONDAY'S FORECAST LOOKS JUST AS HOT AS SUNDAY'S... AT LEAST FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, BUT IT COMES WITH DECREASED
CONFIDENCE. A (DRY) COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE WHIPPING UP AN MCS THAT
PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA MID-DAY. THIS OUTFLOW COULD LEAD TO
A "SURPRISE" POOL OF COOLER AIR OR PERSISTENT MID-DAY CLOUD
COVER. THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS BEST LEFT UNPERTURBED FOR
MONDAY.
LONGER TERM
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN / RETROGRADE ON TUESDAY /
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW TO PUSH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES
THROUGH THE AREA. BEST CHANCES (30%) ARE LATE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL END UP JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS,
REPRESENTING A SIGNIFICANT DROP FROM THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
IFR CONDITIONS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
OVERCAST SKIES NEAR FL006 AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN OVER-OPTIMISTIC IN CLEARING IT OUT ALL DAY, SO CONFIDENCE
ON ITS IMPROVEMENT BY 20Z IS LOW (60%).
EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER FOUND OF SIMILAR CONDITIONS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG INTRODUCED NOW AT KOMA AND
KOFK WITH IFR CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065>068-078-
088>093.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ052-
053.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ052-053.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
IAZ043.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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