085
FXUS63 KOAX 252231
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
531 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT SETTLES OVER THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
THE MID-90S TO LOW 100S. HEAT RELATED CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH MONDAY ALSO LOOKING HOT.
- THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (15-30%) OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. DAMAGING
WIND IS THE PRIMARY THREAT EACH TIME.
- TEMPS REMAIN HOT NEXT WEEK, BUT SHOULD BE CLOSER TO TYPICAL
SUMMER AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
A GRAY AND GLOOMY START TO THE DAY BETRAYED THOSE UNFAMILIAR
WITH THE FORECAST. OVERCAST SKIES AND WIDESPREAD FOG HAVE
CLEARED AS HEIGHTS HAVE RISEN AND TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED. BY
1PM THIS AFTERNOON, SUNNY SKIES HAVE TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER-80S WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER. I'LL
DO THE MATH FOR YOU... HEAT INDICES ARE MOSTLY BETWEEN 100 AND
108F. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS, YOU'LL HAVE TO MANUFACTURE YOUR OWN
WAY TO REMAIN COOL.
TEMPS TONIGHT DROP ONLY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE-70S, MAKING IT
DIFFICULT TO COOL HOMES WITH NO A/C.
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS (MCS) IS EXPECTED TO WORK WEST TO
EAST THROUGH MOST OF SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND MAY CLIP THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH THE IOWA STATE LINE, BUT WIND GUSTS
OVER 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE (5-10%). EXPECT THOSE STORMS TO CLIP
THE AREA AFTER DARK, BUT MOSTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY
SUNDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE SAFEST BET FOR DANGEROUS HEAT AS THE
EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR ALL AREAS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE PLATTE RIVER AS HEAT INDICES OF 110F ARE FORECAST
THERE. THE HEAT ADVISORY CHUGS ALONG ELSEWHERE (105F+). SUNDAY
NIGHT'S TEMPS WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN TONIGHT'S WITH DOWNTOWN
OMAHA EXPECTED TO HOLD A LOW NEAR 80F.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY PRODUCING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY (3000 J/KG). SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE PRODUCES A CLUSTER OR LINE OF STORMS IN EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THAT DIVES SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING HOURS. THE
NBM'S BLEND AVERAGED THOSE POPS TO NEAR ZERO, BUT WITH AN
INCREASING NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS COMING ON BOARD JUST THIS MORNING,
I'VE ADDED 15-30% POPS BACK IN AND THAT MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE,
TBH. AGAIN, WITH TEMPS AS HOT AS THEY ARE, THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE A WIND ONE. (HAIL WOULD BE QUICK TO MELT ABOVE THE SFC
AND HIGH LCLS [6 KFT] LEAVE A PLENTY OF TIME TO EVAPORATE SOME
OF THE RAIN AND PRODUCE DOWNDRAFTS.)
MONDAY
MONDAY'S FORECAST IS JUST AS WARM AS THE OTHERS - AT LEAST FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA - BUT HEAT HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY
NOT AS WIDESPREAD OR AS SERIOUS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. A DEEP
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPING ACROSS CANADA WILL BE DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND PERHAPS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWING ITS ARRIVAL TIME AND
REDUCING ITS IMPACTS, ALTHOUGH THE CANADIAN SOLUTION REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT THE
NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA HEADLINE FREE FOR MONDAY.
FWIW, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SOLUTIONS THAT DROVE AN MCS
THROUGH IOWA MID-DAY MONDAY WHICH WOULD HAVE INTRODUCED ITS OWN
SET OF UNKNOWNS.
TUESDAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAIN HOT FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND, BUT
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT STEP COOLER THAN THOSE OF THIS WEEKEND.
EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK NEAR 90F EACH DAY, JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE A STEP LOWER, TOO,
THANKS TO EASTERLY SFC WINDS FLOWING AROUND THE SFC HIGH
SETTING UP NORTH OF THE CWA.
REGULAR CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
IS PULLED AROUND THE ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER RIDGE. THURSDAY'S
CHANCES CURRENTLY STICK OUT AS THE BEST ODDS FOR RAIN/THUNDER AT
30-40%. A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WOULD BE THE
ONE TO THANK IF YOU'RE THE BENEFICIARY OF SOME NEEDED MOISTURE.
THE RIDGING DOES LOOK TO REBOUND FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER'S 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK DOES LEAN
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE AREA. (DAYS 8-14 DO NOT!)
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
CALM SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. A
DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AFTER 26/00Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW (20% CHANCE) THAT THIS
COMPLEX WILL REACH KOFK, THOUGH PATCHY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE COMPLEX CAN HOLD TOGETHER. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AT FL250.
AFTER 26/18Z, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ050>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ052-053.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ050-
051-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...WOOD
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