202
FXUS63 KOAX 261841
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
141 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
AREA MONDAY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MOSTLY BETWEEN 6PM AND
11PM. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH THEY'LL
BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
AS OF 1:30PM, THE COOLEST HEAT INDEX IN THE CWA IS THE 108
READING AT WAYNE, NE. MOST TEMPS ARE IN THE MID-90S WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S. IT IS HOT AND IT IS HUMID.
MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT BRINGS AN MCS THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM ABOUT YANKTON AND FIZZLING OUT AROUND
I-80. THE RAP AND THE HRRR ARE STILL KEEPING THINGS MOSTLY DRY.
CONSIDER THE SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT TO BE CONDITIONAL, MEANING
IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY SHOULD BE ABLE TO GROW
VOLATILE. WHETHER THEY DEVELOP OR NOT IS NOT CERTAIN (60%).
IT'LL BE HARD TO PRODUCE HAIL WITH TEMPS AS WARM AS THEY ARE,
BUT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES SUGGEST ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT WITH DECREASING SEVERITY AS THE STORMS PUSH SOUTHEAST.
BY THE TIME THEY PUSH THROUGH THE FREMONT/OMAHA AREAS, THEY
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN... IF THEY ARE TO DEVELOP AT ALL.
TORNADOES CAN BE ALL BUT RULED OUT. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BY 5AM
AS REMAINING ACTION SHOULD BE IN MISSOURI BY THEN.
MONDAY
500 HPA HEIGHTS DON'T CHANGE MUCH FOR MONDAY AND WITH SUNNY
SKIES FORECAST, THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM
MATCHING TODAY'S PINNACLES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTH HAS OTHER PLANS FOR
THE NORTHERN COLLECTION OF NEBRASKAN COUNTIES. THE FRONT SHOULD
HAVE PASSED THROUGH NORFOLK BY NOON. THIS WILL LEAVE THAT AREA
AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST OF THERE BOTH A BIT COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK NEAR THE CENTURY
MARK UP NORTH WHILE 115 IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE OMAHA METRO
AND POINTS SOUTHEAST OF THERE.
TUESDAY
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE SLIPPED FOR TUESDAY, NOW AT
ABOUT 15% MAXIMUM ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA. A
SHORTWAVE AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE MAY
PRODUCE SOME STORMS IN WESTERN OR CENTRAL NEBRASKA, BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE ACTION ON THE HORIZON FOR THOSE CLOSER TO THE
MISSOURI RIVER.
HIGH TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PEAK NEAR
90F, NEAR 1991-2020 NORMAL HIGHS.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND
TEMPS REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUING TO SPIN ANTI-CYCLONICALLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES ROUNDING
THE RIDGE WILL BRING OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN IN PRECIP FOR THURSDAY
(60-70%) AS 12Z GLOBAL MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 538 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST
FOR THE REST OF TAF CYCLE. GUSTY WINDS OVERSPREAD TERMINALS
BY THE NOON HOUR FROM THE SOUTH, GUSTING ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO 25
KTS. THESE WINDS SUBSIDE BY 01Z, REMAINING FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER 21Z,
POTENTIALLY REACHING KOFK SOMETIME AFTER 00Z. HOWEVER, LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON IF STORMS WILL DEVELOP, AND CHANCES
REMAIN AT AROUND 20% WITH THIS ISSUANCE SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
MENTIONS AT THIS TIME. FINALLY, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE KLNK AND KOMA TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ030-034-
042>045.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ052-053.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ050-
051-065>068-078-088>093.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
NEZ050-051-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ069-079-080-
090-091.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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