846
FXUS63 KOAX 270423
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1123 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES MONDAY, WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 105 TO 115 DEGREES.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WITH ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES SETTLES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
TUESDAY INTO THE WORK WEEK, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY UNFOLDED BENEATH THE PERSISTENT MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHED THE LOWER 100S AT
MANY LOCATIONS, WHILE CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION MAINTAINED DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
THIS RESULTED IN PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 115 TO 120 DEGREES.
UNDER PERFORMING CONVECTION THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW FOR MINIMAL
CLOUD COVER INTO MONDAY MORNING, ALLOWING ANOTHER SCORCHING DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE RIDGE
WILL DRIVE A SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY,
REDUCING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
DEWPOINTS, BUT BRINGING IN WILDFIRE SMOKE WITH SOME NEAR-SURFACE
SMOKE EXPECTED TO FILTER IN THROUGH THE DAY. LITTLE TEMPERATURE DROP
IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, IN FACT, THE DRIER AIR MASS MAY WARM
EFFICIENTLY DURING THE DAY AS A GREATER SHARE OF THE AVAILABLE ENERGY
GOES TOWARD SENSIBLE HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN REACH THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S AREAWIDE. DEWPOINTS WILL VARY
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE AREA, REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE FALLING INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BEHIND THE FRONT. AS AS RESULT, PEAK HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 110 TO 115 DEGREES ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IOWA, WITH VALUES GENERALLY NEAR 105 DEGREES
ELSEWHERE. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FARTHER NORTH.
MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING FROM THE FRONT RANGE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL INITIATE A
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST, WITH ACTIVITY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL, THOUGH SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE STORMS APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN SO,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE AND DCAPE VALUES
NEAR 1250 J/KG, SUPPORTING THE LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA. POPS CURRENTLY PEAK AT 15-30%.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL DAMPEN THE RIDGE AND
BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN ON TUESDAY, THOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL REACH
THE LOW 90S AND REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. DEWPOINTS WILL
ALSO DECREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUED TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL BRING PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. POPS OF 60-75% ARE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE, WITH THE CLOUD COVER KEEPING HIGHS TO THE
MID 80S. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
WITH GEFS AND EPS BASED MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE PAINTING A
5-15% PROBABILITY FROM NEBRASKA INTO THE DAKOTAS. WE'LL HAVE TO
MONITOR HOW THE DETAILS SHAKE OUT AS IT APPROACHES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS WILL CONTINUE AT 12-14 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS, GRADUALLY CALMING UNDER 12 KTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO KOMA AND KLNK FROM
27/06-12Z AS 40-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WORK IN AROUND FL015.
A FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHEASTERLY.
A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING (27/00-04Z), WITH ISOLATED WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 KTS AND PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS, WITH A 20% CHANCE
OF IMPACTS AT KOFK. AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE IF NEEDED.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ050>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
IA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ069-079-080-
090-091.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...WOOD
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