607
FXUS63 KOAX 291017
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
517 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP.
- A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE AND WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
BEST CHANCE (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA. AT THIS TIME,
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, SEVERAL MODELS ARE
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75"+ OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST, OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
AS A TROUGH COMES ASHORE OVER THE PACNW. THIS WILL BE A SYSTEM TO
WATCH AS IT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE CONUS, AS IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, CLEARING
OUT BY MID-MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF HWY 92 MAY
SEE SOME HAZY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY AS WILDFIRE SMOKE FILTERS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANY MORNING
CONVECTION MAY IMPACT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL EXPECTED LATER IN
THE DAY. THE MAIN WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH WARM, GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY HIGH FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA. FLASH FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN AS WELL THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.
THE UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE EAST, OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA
AND MINNESOTA FRIDAY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING, GRADUALLY ENDING WEST TO EAST BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. ENJOY SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH FRIDAY
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID-80S AND SATURDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID-60S.
THE COOLER WEATHER STICKS AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A DRIER
PATTERN ARRIVING. SATURDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER RIDGE NUDGES
EAST OVER THE DAKOTAS, WITH NORTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA, WITH THE
RIDGE BEING PUSHED OVER MINNESOTA AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS. EXPECT A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID-80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
DRY WEATHER AND GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
FOG IS OBSERVED JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF KOFK EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP WITH THIS ISSUANCE
GIVEN BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
HOUR THERE. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE, WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF THE
CYCLE. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN
THAT WAY FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD AT 12 KTS OR LESS.
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP BY THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
REMAINING GENERALLY ABOVE 3,500 FEET. MODEL GUIDANCE TRIES TO
DEVELOP A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AFTER 22Z. PROBABILITIES (20% CHANCE) REMAIN TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN TAF AT THIS TIME, LARGELY DUE TO SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES SEEN AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE. HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AFTER 10Z
(30-40% CHANCE).
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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