369
FXUS63 KOAX 291836
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
136 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- A MORE WIDESPREAD LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATER ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DAMAGE WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS,
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS
THE MORNING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED AS OF 1 PM
WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING. THE WEAK, SLOW-MOVING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT HELPED DRIVE THIS SYSTEM IS CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL KS WITH A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION, AND A
GENERALLY LESSENING INFLUENCE THIS FAR NORTH. THE MORNING STORMS
DEVELOPED IN A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FEED OFF THE GULF AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FEED AROUND THE
RIDGE FROM THE BAJA REGION. THIS HELPED THE STRONGER CELLS TO
PRODUCE 2-3" PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES WHERE THEY STALLED. THIS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IS ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH THE APPROACH OF A STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE CA/NV REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING
PWAT OF 2-2.2" TO PARTS OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT ROUND
OF STORMS. THE INCOMING WESTERN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND COOL TEMPERATURES A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, IN ADDITION TO PRECIP POTENTIAL.
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
SOME WEAK SMALLER-SCALE FORCING WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE
TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL JET SPEED OVER
CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME LLJ CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY
LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS AREA OF WEAK FORCING MAY PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH THE MAIN QUESTION BEING HOW
WIDESPREAD ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE. DEEP FORCING IS
WEAK, BUT CAPPING IS VERY LIMITED AND WHEN PAIRED WITH A DEEP
MOIST ENVIRONMENT IT PROBABLY WON'T TAKE MUCH FORCING TO SUSTAIN
SCATTERED STORMS. IF CONVECTION IS MORE WIDESPREAD TOMORROW, IT
MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY RECOVERY WHICH WOULD
LESSEN THE LATE DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT FEWER STORMS DURING
THE DAY MAY WARRANT A BIT MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FOR
LATE THURSDAY.
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
THE MAIN SHOW IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY EVENING AS THE STRONGER
DEEP LAYER FORCING PUSHES EAST. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT ENTERING
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO CONVECT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION QUICKLY INTO AN MCS AS NUMEROUS UPDRAFTS IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY CONGLOMERATE INTO A SINGLE FORWARD PROPAGATING
COLD POOL. THE THETA-E AND MLCAPE AXES WILL EXTEND FROM THAT
NORTH CENTRAL NE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR VECTORS POINT EAST OR EAST SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WOULD
APPEAR TO FAVOR INDIVIDUAL OUTFLOW SURGES DIRECTED TOWARD THE
EAST SOUTHEAST WHILE THE LARGER MCS OUTFLOW SYSTEM EATS TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THAT INSTABILITY DOES
NOT EXTEND TERRIBLY FAR EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER SO THE
INTENSITY SHOULD WANE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE WIND AND
INSTABILITY FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SEVERE WIND IN SEGMENTS, BUT ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE
IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A PERSISTENT HIGH-END WIND STORM
ACROSS A WIDE EXPANSE. ADDITIONALLY, THE MOISTURE CONTENT
SUGGESTS THAT RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED 2" PER HOUR IN HEAVIER
CORES, SO ANY TRAINING ELEMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL. SHOWERS OR A STORM MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY,
BUT THE TROUGH PASSES EAST OF THE AREA WITH SUBSIDENCE
OVERTAKING AND DRYING OUT THE REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY.
SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
A RATHER WEAK NORTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY DRY
THROUGH MONDAY OR SO, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING
OVERHEAD AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE LARGELY IN THE
80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S IN A LESS HUMID AIRMASS. BY
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRONG IN BRINGING A
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG CANADIAN TROUGH WITH A FRONT
SAGGING TOWARD NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IF THE FRONT MAKES IT THIS FAR SOUTH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHILE THERE ARE SOME BKN MVFR CIGS HANGING AROUND OMA AT 18Z,
BELIEVE THAT IT WILL SCATTER AND LIFT TO VFR BY 18Z OR VERY
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THEN EXPECT VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA OR TSRA AT ALL SITES
MAINLY IN THE 10-14Z WINDOW, BUT IT WILL BE SCATTERED PRECIP SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
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