853
FXUS63 KOAX 301711
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1211 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS.
- A MORE WIDESPREAD LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WIND
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS, ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AS EARLIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAD LARGELY COME TO AN END. HOWEVER, WE DO
EXPECT STORM RE-DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
WESTERN NE APPROACHES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP
AND POINTS INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION, WE'LL HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE) ALONG WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS OVER 4.5 KM. THEREFORE, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS, AS WE SAW DURING THE DAY IN
PARTS OF THE AREA WHERE WE OBSERVED 2+ INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL
RATES. IF WE GET REPEATED ROUNDS OVER ANY AREAS, LOCALIZED
FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW
WIDESPREAD THESE STORMS WILL BE, WITH SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
RANGING FROM A FEW SOMEWHAT SHORT-LIVED SPOTTY SHOWERS TO A
RELATIVELY PERSISTENT, SOLID LINE. ON TOP OF THAT, EVEN RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY IS SOMEWHAT LOW. ALL THAT SAID, JUST GIVEN THE
SETUP WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY, MOISTURE TRANSPORT,
AND INCOMING SHORTWAVE ENERGY, TEND TO LEAN TOWARD MAYBE THE
HIGHER END OF SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
SO WILL MAINTAIN THE 40- 60% CHANCES.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HOW LONG THE PRECIP AND CLOUD-COVER
LINGERS INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF A COLD FRONT FIRING SOME STORMS ALONG THE NE/SD
BORDER BY THE AFTERNOON AND PUSHING THEM INTO NORTHEAST NE AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SHOULD EARLY-DAY STORMS AND CLOUDS LINGER LONGER,
OBVIOUSLY THE INCOMING LINE WILL HAVE LESS INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH AND WOULD BE A LITTLE WEAKER, AND VICE VERSA. SHEAR ALSO
LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT ACROSS OUR AREA (30-35 KTS IN THE 0-6 KM
LAYER AND 15-25 KTS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER), SO TEND TO THE LINE
WILL LIKELY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH. STILL, GUIDANCE SHOWS POCKETS OF 45-60+ MPH WINDS,
ESPECIALLY FARTHER WEST WHERE 0-3 KM SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE ENHANCED. ADDITIONALLY, THE ENVIRONMENT FOR EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING STORMS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, SO COULD SEE SOME HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF ANY AREAS SEE
TRAINING STORMS.
THINK THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD EXIT OUR AREA
TOWARD 4-5 AM WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
STORMS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND A SURFACE LOW OFF
TO OUR EAST. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LINGERING PRECIP/CLOUDS
WILL LEAD TO A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.
WE'LL WARM BACK UP A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING TO
KEEP US DRY. EXPECT LOWER TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. OUR
NEXT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS A
LARGE SCALE TROUGH SLIDES BY TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH TOWARD OR THROUGH THE AREA. STILL SOME SPREAD IN
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT AND
PRECIP WILL MAKE IT, BUT CURRENTLY SEEING ABOUT 20-40% CHANCE AT
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
HAVE DRAMATICALLY CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS. OLDER MODELS STILL HAVE THE
PRIMARY WAVE OF STORMS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MOSTLY
8PM AND MIDNIGHT, BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE CURRENT
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR OFK PUSHING SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THIS ROUTE
ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUS TIMING REMAINS POSSIBLE (ABOUT 5 HOURS
LATER THAN CURRENT FORECASTS). EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY WITH ANY STORMS. VIS MAY SLIP UNDER 2 MILES WITH
HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.
PATCHY FOG/HAZE MAY DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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