418
FXUS63 KOAX 301857
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
157 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
- A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS, ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE PINNACLE OF THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE HAS
BEEN PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. THE
ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAIN AS MOISTURE HAS
BEEN ADVECTING FROM THE GULF OVER THE PAST 36+ HOURS. PWAT
VALUES ARE ANOMALOUS FOR THE SEASON AT ABOUT 2" WHICH IS IN THE
99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE JULY / EARLY AUGUST (NAEFS).
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO RECORD RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3" (AND ONE REPORT OF 5") AN
HOUR WERE REPORTED AROUND SUNRISE. WITH A BROAD SHIELD OF
PRECIP, LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE BECOMING LESS COMMON.
STILL, TWO GAUGES JUST SOUTH OF PLAINVIEW, NE (ANTELOPE COUNTY)
HAVE REPORTED OVER 5" SINCE MIDNIGHT WITH 2-3" COMMON IN THE
REST OF THE COUNTY OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD. WE'RE FINALLY
GETTING SOME EASTWARD MOTION WITH THIS AREA, ALLOWING FOR SOME
CLEARING OVER THE WETTEST SPOTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NOTABLE INSTABILITY BY THIS EVENING. STILL, THE
CLOUD COVER ENCOURAGED ME TO LOWER FORECAST HIGHS IN MOST
LOCATIONS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY.
TONIGHT
THE HRRR HAS OFFERED A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY TODAY, BUT HAS CURRENTLY RESORTED BACK TO THE ORIGINAL
THEORY OF CONVECTING ALONG THE COLD FRONT DIVING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A SFC LOW IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ANOTHER IN NORTHEAST KANSAS. THE TROF BETWEEN THE TWO
(AND THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING PROVIDED BY TODAY'S CLOUD COVER)
SHOULD PROVIDE A CORRIDOR FOR TONIGHT'S PROSPECTIVE MCS. WHILE
SUPERCELLS MAY BE THE FIRST MODE NOTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SD,
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS EXPECTED AS THE
STORMS PUSH INTO NEBRASKA.
PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THIS CLOUD COVER AND THE BAROCLINICITY IT
PRODUCES, MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN DRIVING THE STRONGEST WINDS A BIT
FARTHER WEST THAN YESTERDAY'S DID. CAM GUIDANCE HAS VERY LITTLE
"SEVERE" WIND COMING FROM TONIGHT'S LINE OF STORMS, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE DIMINISHING, THE PRIMARY THREAT
REMAINS DAMAGING WIND. HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE UNLIKELY. I EXPECT
THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE A HARD TIME MAINTAINING SHEAR/COLD POOL
BALANCE. WITH SHEAR NUMBERS NEAR 20 KNOTS, THE COLD POOL MAY
QUICKLY OUTRUN THE COMPLEX.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SEVERE WARNINGS/DAMAGE WILL BE
BETWEEN 7PM AND 10PM WITH THE LAST OF THE STORMS PUSHING OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA BY 3AM (ALTHOUGH NO LONGER LIKELY TO BE
SEVERE).
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE NEAR 15K FEET
AND PWATS ARE CRANKED. THE WPC BELIEVES THERE'S A 15% CHANCE OF
FLASH FLOODING WITHIN 25 MILES ANY GIVEN POINT AND CLOSER TO
25-30% CHANCE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA GIVEN TODAY'S EARLIER RAIN.
THANKFULLY, THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
LIMIT RESIDENCE TIME OVER ANY GIVEN PLACE AND HELP KEEP THAT
THREAT TO A MINIMUM. FLOODING WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON ANY TRAINING
ELEMENTS.
FRIDAY
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, BOTH DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS WILL SLIP A COUPLE
OF DEGREES. TEMPS IN THE UPPER-70S AND LOWER-80S ARE 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. A FEW WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA AND WINDS THERE
WILL BE BREEZIER UNDER THE H5 COMMA-HEAD. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVER
THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE SHOWERS END AND THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS RIDGING NOSES BACK OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP CANADIAN LOW WILL
SWEEP WEST TO EAST AND TRY TO DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. IT WILL GET HUNG UP SOMEWHERE AROUND HERE AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
HAVE DRAMATICALLY CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS. OLDER MODELS STILL HAVE THE
PRIMARY WAVE OF STORMS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN MOSTLY
8PM AND MIDNIGHT, BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THE CURRENT
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR OFK PUSHING SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THIS ROUTE
ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUS TIMING REMAINS POSSIBLE (ABOUT 5 HOURS
LATER THAN CURRENT FORECASTS). EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY WITH ANY STORMS. VIS MAY SLIP UNDER 2 MILES WITH
HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.
PATCHY FOG/HAZE MAY DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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