769
FXUS63 KOAX 302342
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
642 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DAMAGING WIND AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS, ALONG WITH
SMALL HAIL.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE PINNACLE OF THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE HAS
BEEN PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA TODAY. THE
ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAIN AS MOISTURE HAS
BEEN ADVECTING FROM THE GULF OVER THE PAST 36+ HOURS. PWAT
VALUES ARE ANOMALOUS FOR THE SEASON AT ABOUT 2" WHICH IS IN THE
99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE JULY / EARLY AUGUST (NAEFS).
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO RECORD RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3" (AND ONE REPORT OF 5") AN
HOUR WERE REPORTED AROUND SUNRISE. WITH A BROAD SHIELD OF
PRECIP, LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE BECOMING LESS COMMON.
STILL, TWO GAUGES JUST SOUTH OF PLAINVIEW, NE (ANTELOPE COUNTY)
HAVE REPORTED OVER 5" SINCE MIDNIGHT WITH 2-3" COMMON IN THE
REST OF THE COUNTY OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD. WE'RE FINALLY
GETTING SOME EASTWARD MOTION WITH THIS AREA, ALLOWING FOR SOME
CLEARING OVER THE WETTEST SPOTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NOTABLE INSTABILITY BY THIS EVENING. STILL, THE
CLOUD COVER ENCOURAGED ME TO LOWER FORECAST HIGHS IN MOST
LOCATIONS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY.
TONIGHT
THE HRRR HAS OFFERED A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY TODAY, BUT HAS CURRENTLY RESORTED BACK TO THE ORIGINAL
THEORY OF CONVECTING ALONG THE COLD FRONT DIVING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING.
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A SFC LOW IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND ANOTHER IN NORTHEAST KANSAS. THE TROF BETWEEN THE TWO
(AND THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING PROVIDED BY TODAY'S CLOUD COVER)
SHOULD PROVIDE A CORRIDOR FOR TONIGHT'S PROSPECTIVE MCS. WHILE
SUPERCELLS MAY BE THE FIRST MODE NOTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SD,
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS EXPECTED AS THE
STORMS PUSH INTO NEBRASKA.
PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THIS CLOUD COVER AND THE BAROCLINICITY IT
PRODUCES, MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN DRIVING THE STRONGEST WINDS A BIT
FARTHER WEST THAN YESTERDAY'S DID. CAM GUIDANCE HAS VERY LITTLE
"SEVERE" WIND COMING FROM TONIGHT'S LINE OF STORMS, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE DIMINISHING, THE PRIMARY THREAT
REMAINS DAMAGING WIND. HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE UNLIKELY. I EXPECT
THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE A HARD TIME MAINTAINING SHEAR/COLD POOL
BALANCE. WITH SHEAR NUMBERS NEAR 20 KNOTS, THE COLD POOL MAY
QUICKLY OUTRUN THE COMPLEX.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SEVERE WARNINGS/DAMAGE WILL BE
BETWEEN 7PM AND 10PM WITH THE LAST OF THE STORMS PUSHING OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA BY 3AM (ALTHOUGH NO LONGER LIKELY TO BE
SEVERE).
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED AS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE NEAR 15K FEET
AND PWATS ARE CRANKED. THE WPC BELIEVES THERE'S A 15% CHANCE OF
FLASH FLOODING WITHIN 25 MILES ANY GIVEN POINT AND CLOSER TO
25-30% CHANCE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA GIVEN TODAY'S EARLIER RAIN.
THANKFULLY, THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
LIMIT RESIDENCE TIME OVER ANY GIVEN PLACE AND HELP KEEP THAT
THREAT TO A MINIMUM. FLOODING WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON ANY TRAINING
ELEMENTS.
FRIDAY
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, BOTH DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS WILL SLIP A COUPLE
OF DEGREES. TEMPS IN THE UPPER-70S AND LOWER-80S ARE 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. A FEW WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA AND WINDS THERE
WILL BE BREEZIER UNDER THE H5 COMMA-HEAD. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVER
THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE SHOWERS END AND THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS RIDGING NOSES BACK OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP CANADIAN LOW WILL
SWEEP WEST TO EAST AND TRY TO DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. IT WILL GET HUNG UP SOMEWHERE AROUND HERE AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT. STILL FAIRLY CONFIDENT ALL SITES WILL SEE
STORMS, BUT SOME TRENDS ARE POINTING TO OMA BEING ON THE VERY
NORTHERN EDGE WITH MAYBE A 10-20% CHANCE THEY GET MISSED.
WITHIN IN THE LINE EXPECT 30-40 KT GUSTS TO BE COMMON, WITH POCKETS
OF 50+ KTS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. BEHIND THE LINE, SOME GUIDANCE
HINTS AT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS LINGERING TOWARD MID TO LATE MORNING. FINALLY, WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE STORMS, WITH GUSTS OF
25-35 KTS DURING THE DAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...CA
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