787
FXUS63 KOAX 310537
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1237 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LINE OF STRONG STORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 4 AM FRIDAY. A
FEW COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
STILL SOME STRONGER STORMS WORKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE AREA
WITH SOME 40-50+ MPH GUSTS, BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
GENERALLY WANING AS OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF THE LINE. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 3-4 AM WITH
GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTING THAT WE SEE A LITTLE
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THEM AS THE ANVIL
CLEARS OUT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WE'LL REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF A SURFACE LOW OVER IA THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS, BUT NOTHING TOO IMPACTFUL FROM THAT STANDPOINT. PERHAPS
MORE NOTEWORTHY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AT LEAST 40+ KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER. IN ADDITION, EPS GUIDANCE SHOWS MEAN WIND GUSTS OF 40-50
MPH WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 50 MPH. REALLY IT WILL
COME DOWN TO HOW DEEP WE'RE ABLE TO MIX, AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP, LEAN TOWARD SHALLOWER MIXING AND
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS, BUT STILL EXPECT 40+ MPH GUSTS AT TIMES.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A FEW COUNTIES SITTING RIGHT AROUND WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN DEGREE OF
MIXING, GOING TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, WE'LL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN MILD WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS THE
TROUGH/LOW PUSH FARTHER EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. WE'LL START TO WARM BACK UP SUNDAY WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY MID 80S TO MID 90S ON MONDAY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WE'LL START TO SEE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGER SCALE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WHILE A COLD FRONT STARTS
EDGING SOUTHWARD. STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON EXACT
TIMING OF WHEN THAT FRONT GETS HERE, BUT WHEN IT DOES, IT'LL
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGESTS IT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WHILE SEVERAL BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SO IN GENERAL, EXPECT A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEEK
WITH ON AND OFF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA AND 90S IN THE SOUTH.
MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE WEATHER GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS AT LEAST
SOME LOW END SEVERE STORM CHANCES AT TIMES (5-10%), BUT STILL
LOTS OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD, CLEARING THE TAF SITES BY 7-8Z. MVFR
TO PERHAPS BRIEF IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND OR
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY AT OMA AND EAST. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE IN
STRENGTH, GUSTING 25-35+ KTS BY AROUND 12-14Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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