093
FXUS63 KOAX 311835
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
135 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND.
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR THE
MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER WITH RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SFC LOW SPINNING IN CENTRAL IOWA
NEAR IOWA FALLS. THE OAX CWA IS MOSTLY OBSCURED BY WRAP-AROUND
OVERCAST SKIES AT ABOUT 2,000 FEET. A FEW RADAR RETURNS OVER
WESTERN IOWA ARE PRODUCING SPRINKLES AT BEST WITH ISO POPS
CONTINUING ON THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT 7PM
THIS EVENING.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE LOW'S AFFECT ON OUR WINDS, CURRENTLY
GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS. THOSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 35
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE
OPTED TO FORGO ISSUING ONE, BUT IT IS CLOSE. SHOULD THEY
OVERPERFORM, ONE MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY HAS SLIPPED. DEWPOINTS ARE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
FROM YESTERDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BY A BIGGER MARGIN FOR
SATURDAY. THE NBM'S NUMBERS WERE TOO HIGH AND I TOOK CARE OF
THAT. I'VE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT DUE TO THE IMPACT
OF THE ELEVATED WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING IN FROM THE NORTH. THAT
SMOKE IS FORECAST TO PEAK OVER THE AREA AROUND 4AM SUNDAY
MORNING AT 40-60 MG/M2. I ADDED A 25% MINIMUM FOR CLOUD COVER
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND IF ANYTHING, THAT'S
UNDERESTIMATING HOW MUCH SUNSHINE THE SMOKE WILL BE BLOCKING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND REDUCED INSOLATION,
TEMPS WILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT
PEAKS IN THE LOWER TO MID-80S.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY DESPITE THE LINGERING SMOKE THAT
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED OFF THE SFC. AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES
EAST AND THE WESTERN RIDGING NOSES TOWARD MINNESOTA, WINDS WILL
SLOW AND RETURN FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BEST THOSE OF SATURDAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
NEXT WEEK
A CANADIAN TROF PLOWING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PROVINCES WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY-ISH AND WILL LEAVE IT
STALLED IN THE VICINITY. THIS, WORKING IN CONCERT WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY, SHOULD BRING REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY NIGHT'S POPS PEAK AT 75% FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. PRECIP AMOUNTS COULD BE GOOD AS PWATS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 2" RANGE THANKS TO A GOOD
SOUTHERLY MEAN WIND FROM THE GULF. MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES COULD ACCOMPANY THE RAIN,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW GET TOO EXCITED JUST YET.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
MVFR CIGS HAVE BUILT BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WITH OVERCAST SKIES AT FL020. STRONG NW WINDS ARE
GENERALLY GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS AND ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AT
30-35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CONDITIONS AROUND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SLOWLY LIFT. WINDS
WILL PEAK AROUND THE SAME TIME BEFORE SLOWING AFTER DARK.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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