471
FXUS63 KOAX 312259
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
559 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND.
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A MID-LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR THE
MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER WITH RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA.
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SFC LOW SPINNING IN CENTRAL IOWA
NEAR IOWA FALLS. THE OAX CWA IS MOSTLY OBSCURED BY WRAP-AROUND
OVERCAST SKIES AT ABOUT 2,000 FEET. A FEW RADAR RETURNS OVER
WESTERN IOWA ARE PRODUCING SPRINKLES AT BEST WITH ISO POPS
CONTINUING ON THE FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT 7PM
THIS EVENING.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE LOW'S AFFECT ON OUR WINDS, CURRENTLY
GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS. THOSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 35
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE
OPTED TO FORGO ISSUING ONE, BUT IT IS CLOSE. SHOULD THEY
OVERPERFORM, ONE MIGHT NEED TO BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY HAS SLIPPED. DEWPOINTS ARE DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
FROM YESTERDAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BY A BIGGER MARGIN FOR
SATURDAY. THE NBM'S NUMBERS WERE TOO HIGH AND I TOOK CARE OF
THAT. I'VE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT DUE TO THE IMPACT
OF THE ELEVATED WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING IN FROM THE NORTH. THAT
SMOKE IS FORECAST TO PEAK OVER THE AREA AROUND 4AM SUNDAY
MORNING AT 40-60 MG/M2. I ADDED A 25% MINIMUM FOR CLOUD COVER
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND IF ANYTHING, THAT'S
UNDERESTIMATING HOW MUCH SUNSHINE THE SMOKE WILL BE BLOCKING.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND REDUCED INSOLATION,
TEMPS WILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT
PEAKS IN THE LOWER TO MID-80S.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY DESPITE THE LINGERING SMOKE THAT
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED OFF THE SFC. AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES
EAST AND THE WESTERN RIDGING NOSES TOWARD MINNESOTA, WINDS WILL
SLOW AND RETURN FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BEST THOSE OF SATURDAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
NEXT WEEK
A CANADIAN TROF PLOWING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PROVINCES WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY-ISH AND WILL LEAVE IT
STALLED IN THE VICINITY. THIS, WORKING IN CONCERT WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY, SHOULD BRING REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY NIGHT'S POPS PEAK AT 75% FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. PRECIP AMOUNTS COULD BE GOOD AS PWATS
WILL BE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 2" RANGE THANKS TO A GOOD
SOUTHERLY MEAN WIND FROM THE GULF. MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES COULD ACCOMPANY THE RAIN,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW GET TOO EXCITED JUST YET.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
MVFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED OFF TO THE EAST WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST 25-30KT
OUT OF THE NORTH FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE RELAXING SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT, STILL GOING 10-15KT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS
TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, INCREASING AGAIN AROUND 15Z WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25KT. WE'LL ALSO SEE SMOKE MOVE IN ALOFT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LEADING TO HAZY SKIES BUT SHOULDN'T SEE
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT THE TERMINALS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...MCCOY
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