223
FXUS63 KOAX 010146
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
846 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS ARE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 846 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
SATELLITE SHOWS THE UNSEASONABLY DEEP SURFACE LOW SPINNING TO
OUR EAST GENERATING THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. WE'LL SEE SURFACE WINDS WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THOUGH WINDS SHOULD STAY
AROUND 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH. SKIES WILL BE
CLEARING OF CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT WE'LL ALSO
SEE WILDFIRE SMOKE OUT OF CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GET
PULLED IN LEADING TO HAZY SKIES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LOOKING AT THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN, THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL SLIDE MORE EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LEADING TO WARMING TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA. THE GOOD NEWS FOR US IS THAT THE RIDGE AXIS NEVER
REALLY PUSHES THROUGH KEEPING THE HEAT TO OUR WEST. BECAUSE OF
THIS, WE'LL MAINTAIN MILDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY AND
MID-80S TO LOW-90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
A TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA PUSHES INTO INTERIOR
CANADA SQUASHING DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN STARTING LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT APPEARS TO STALL
ACROSS OUR AREA TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVES ALOFT INTERACT WITH THIS
FRONT. MACHINE LEARNING PRODUCTS FROM NSSL SUGGEST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS THE FRONT INITIALLY ARRIVES ON
TUESDAY, BUT A BETTER THREAT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRIGGERING
STORMS ON THURSDAY THAT FINALLY PUSHES IT OUT OF OUR AREA. A LOT
OF DETAILS STILL TO WORK OUT, SO JUST MONITOR THESE PERIODS FOR
NOW.
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TRENDS BEYOND THURSDAY DROPS OFF QUITE A
BIT GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A FAIRLY
BAROCLINIC PATTERN APPEARS TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TRENDS BACK WARMER WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
FOR NOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
MVFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED OFF TO THE EAST WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST 25-30KT
OUT OF THE NORTH FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE RELAXING SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT, STILL GOING 10-15KT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS
TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, INCREASING AGAIN AROUND 15Z WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25KT. WE'LL ALSO SEE SMOKE MOVE IN ALOFT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LEADING TO HAZY SKIES BUT SHOULDN'T SEE
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT THE TERMINALS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
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