350
FXUS63 KOAX 011747
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1247 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AS ELEVATED WILDFIRE
SMOKE PRODUCES SOME MILKY SKIES.
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT A PLEASANT DAY! TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE REASONABLE MID-60S. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
TOO GUSTY FOR MY TASTE WITH 15-25 MPH BLASTS OF AIR COMMON. THE
H5 PATTERN SHOWS CLOUD COVER JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, TIED TO
A CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OVER ILLINOIS. A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
AT 2500 FT CAN BE SPOTTED ON GOES-19.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY *CLOUD-FREE* OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS, BUT WILL BE POLLUTED WITH WILDFIRE SMOKE WAFTING IN
FROM THE NORTH. HAVE ADDED 20-30% SKY COVER TO THE GRIDS TO
REPRESENT THE ELEVATED SMOKE AND REDUCED INSOLATION. UNDER THE
"CLEAR" SKIES TONIGHT, TEMPS WILL FALL TO MID-50S TO NEAR 60 AND
THEN AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PUSH A BIT HIGHER THAN SATURDAY,
CLIMBING INTO THE MID-80S.
I'VE ALSO INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT AS
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ABATE OVERNIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW LOSES INFLUENCE ON THE REGION AND BEFORE SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS FOR SUNDAY. FOG IS LIKELIEST IN LOW-LYING
AREAS AND IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IT SHOULD BURN OFF BY 9AM.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS PICK UP THE PACE ON MONDAY AND HELP DRIVE
TEMPS CLOSER TO 90F BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR EARLY AUGUST
NORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
THAT RIDGE IS DAMPENED BY A POWERFUL LOW BULLYING ITS WAY
THROUGH CANADA ON TUESDAY AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO SETTLE INTO THE CORN BELT ON TUESDAY MORNING,
BRINGING A LIKELY CHANCE (60-80%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER. THOSE
LIKELY POPS WILL MEANDER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE COURSE OF
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS SUGGEST A
5-15% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE FRONT, BUT THE SPC
KEEPS THE THREAT JUST WEST OF THIS CWA.
FURTHER DOWN THE LINE
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS UNSETTLED AND A BIT OF A
QUESTION MARK AS THE EVENTUAL LANDING PLACE OF THAT STALLED COLD
FRONT FROM MONDAY/TUESDAY HAS LOTS OF SPREAD AMONG GLOBAL
MODELS. REGARDLESS, ITS NEBULOUS PLACEMENT IN THE CENTRAL
CONUS, REGULAR EJECTIONS OF SHORTWAVES, AND AN ATMOSPHERE RIFE
WITH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS/THUNDER
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. SOMETIMES THESE EVENTUAL WAVES OF
MOISTURE DON'T MAKE THEIR PRESENCE KNOWN UNTIL 48 HOURS OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY FOG,
ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME MVFR VIS AT
KOFK FROM 09Z TO 15Z SUNDAY MORNING AND LEFT OMA AND LNK
UNAFFECTED FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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