486
FXUS63 KOAX 021643
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1143 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ELEVATED
WILDFIRE SMOKE PRODUCES SOME MILKY SKIES.
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
- MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
WARMING TREND LIKELY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT A WONDERFUL EVENING TO FOLLOW A PLEASANT DAY! SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S AS OF
9PM. WINDS HAVE MOSTLY RELAXED ACROSS THE AREA WIT, GENERALLY
AROUND 7 MPH OR LESS AND WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TO NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP,
MAINLY IN LOW-LYING VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE LOW CONTINUING TO SPIN TO OUR EAST OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING WHILE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE HIGH PLAINS. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD, WE'LL LOSE IT'S INFLUENCE AND SEE A
FLOW REVERSAL TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT DURING THE
MORNING TO WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WE SAW TODAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
GENERALLY IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS CLOSER TO
NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA PEAKING IN THE LOW 90S.
THIS PATTERN HOLDS INTO MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ONLY
AMPLIFYING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES. WITH THIS WE'LL SEE THE WARMING TREND CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON MONDAY. THE
GOOD NEWS IS WE'RE NOT SEEING A LOT OF HUMIDITY ADVECT IN WITH
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE SOURCE REGION FOR THIS AIR MASS IS
MORE OVER CENTRAL AND WEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD KEEP HUMIDITY AND
HEAT INDICES UNDER CONTROL, THOUGH AGRICULTURAL CONTRIBUTIONS
WILL STILL REMAIN LEADING TO TEMPERATURES FEELING LOCALLY HIGHER
IN SOME AREAS.
TUESDAY WE SEE A MORE PROFOUND IMPACT FROM THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH TO OUR NORTH, BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN WITH THIS FRONT STARTING IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT EARLY TUESDAY IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA SPREADING TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PRESENT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH
A GREATER AMOUNT OF BULK SHEAR ARRIVING LATER IN THE MORNING
CLOSER TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS
MORE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND HODOGRAPHS SHOW A GREATER COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR. HIGH STORM BASES (LCLS) WILL LIKELY LIMIT TORNADO
CHANCES, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PHENOMENAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE MID 70S. THIS IS DUE TO A CANADIAN HIGH SLIDING DOWN THE
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING IN THIS COOLER AIR
MASS. IT WON'T BE SUNSHINE AND ROSES, THOUGH, AS WE SIT ON THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THIS HIGH AS IT COLLIDES WITH THE WARMER,
MOISTER AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY, MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF WHEREVER THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATES ITSELF ACROSS OUR
AREA.
CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF IN FORECAST DETAILS BEYOND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
A FAIRLY ACTIVE, BAROCLINIC PATTERN SETTING UP WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN POTENTIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES. TEMPERATURES LIKELY REBOUND GOING INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE CANADIAN HIGHS SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND WE SEE
THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION, WE COULD
SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS
REALLY LOW IN THESE DETAILS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. NO FOG AND VERY LITTLE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED WILDFIRE
SMOKE DRIFTING IN FROM THE NORTH AT FL050 TO FL080. IT'S
FILTERING OUT ABOUT 30% OF SUNLIGHT AT THE SFC.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THEY'LL SPEED UP A BIT MONDAY MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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