192
FXUS63 KOAX 022314
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
614 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPS CLIMB ANOTHER FEW DEGREES FOR MONDAY AS ELEVATED
WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HAZY SKIES.
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
- MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
WARMING TREND LIKELY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE CUTOFF LOW OVER
INDIANA HAS OPENED UP AND IS DRIFTING EAST. THE FOUR CORNERS
RIDGE IS AMPLIFYING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROF OVER THE PACNW.
THE ENJOYABLE WEATHER OF THE CORN BELT CONTINUES WITH TEMPS
COOLER THAN TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST READINGS. WINDS, HARD TO IGNORE
SATURDAY, ARE BLOWING AT 0-5 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUD-LESS, BUT WILDFIRE SMOKE
DRIFTING IN FROM THE NORTH IS BLOCKING ABOUT 1/4 OF OF OUR
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE SMOKE IS FOUND AT THE
SURFACE, IT'S GENERALLY ABOUT 5K TO 8K FEET OFF THE SFC.
THE PATCHY DENSE FOG FOUND THIS MORNING IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REPEAT OVERNIGHT, AT LEAST NOT IN NEBRASKA. WIND SPEEDS OF 5-15
KNOTS AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF ABOUT TWO DEGREES SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP IT AT BAY. HIGHER MAX RH NUMBERS IN WESTERN IOWA
WILL MAKE FOG DEVELOPMENT MORE OF AN UNCERTAINTY THERE. IT'S
NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST.
MONDAY
WIND SPEEDS MAY ACTUALLY TICK UP OVERNIGHT JUST A BIT BEFORE
BECOMING BREEZY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. THIS
WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPS HIGHER. UPPER 80S ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN
IOWA WHILE EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL RECORD LOW 90S.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT LATE MONDAY NIGHT / EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY
AS THE CANADIAN FRONT SAGS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN IOWA,
POPS CLIMB INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY (60%) IN THE NORTHERN
REACHES OF THE CWA. I TALKED TO THE SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
FORECASTER FOR TUESDAY AND HE DISCUSSED HIS REASONING FOR
LEAVING TUESDAY "MARGINAL-FREE" FOR NOW. THE AREA SHOULD HAVE A
REASONABLE AMOUNT OF CAPE (1500 J/KG) AND SHEAR (35-50 KNOTS),
BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LAPSE RATES ARE LEFT WANTING. I
EXPECT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA TO BE "OUTLOOKED"
EVENTUALLY AS CONFIDENCE IN PARAMETERS GROWS.
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL CORRESPONDS TO THE LAST FEW
HOURS OF THE LATEST HRRR/RAP SMOKE GUIDANCE, SO CONFIDENCE IS
LOW, BUT THAT FRONT MAY BRING A BIT OF *SFC* WILDFIRE SMOKE
WITH IT. THAT SMOKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONCENTRATED AS
IT APPROACHES, SO IMPACTS MAY BE ZERO OR NEGLIGIBLE. FUTURE RUNS
WILL REVEAL MORE.
WEDNESDAY
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDER (80% CENTRAL/SOUTH) COMES
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE NOCTURNAL JET RAMPS UP. CAPE MAY HIT
ITS PEAK THEN, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE ELEVATED AND THEREFORE KEEP
THE TORNADO THREAT LOW. RAIN CHANCES SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO MISSOURI. UNDER THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS,
MAX TEMPS WILL END UP JUST AS CLOSE TO NORMAL HIGHS AS NORMAL
LOWS (MIDDLE TO UPPER-70S).
LONGER RANGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND MID-WEEK IS LOW AS GLOBAL
MODELS DIVERGE. THE OVERALL TREND IS TO SEE THE RIDGE OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AMPLIFY AND BUILD BACK OVER THE OAX CWA WHICH
WOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SUMMERY WEATHER THAT LEANS WARM AND
DRY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST AROUND MID-MORNING. SKIES MAY BE A BIT
HAZY WITH SOME SMOKE WELL ALOFT, BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
FLIGHT CONDITION IMPACTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
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