001
FXUS63 KOAX 041718
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1218 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING
(40-70% CHANCE).
- RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY (60-90% CHANCE).
- MILDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, WARMING BACK UP GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY, SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
A FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO KNOX COUNTY. AS THIS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WE'LL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECENT SHEAR (35-50KT) BEHIND THE FRONT, INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR US TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH OUR STRONGEST STORMS OVERNIGHT.
LOOKING BACK AT THE LARGER PICTURE WE HAVE A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH, STEMMING FROM A LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT A COOLER CANADIAN AIR MASS
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL
ACROSS OUR AREA TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND STORMS TRIGGER ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK FORCING. PWAT VALUES NORTH OF OUR 90TH
PERCENTILE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT THEY SHOULD MOVE WELL ENOUGH TO NOT BE
MUCH OF A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AGAIN, WE'LL LACK ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT, BUT AMPLE MOISTURE AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
LEAD TO GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WE'LL GET A BETTER IDEA OF THE EXACT CORRIDOR FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL ONCE THE FRONT STALLS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT
SHOULD LAND FAIRLY CLOSE TO OUR FORECAST RIGHT NOW FOR AREAS
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE MOSTLY OVER OUR SOUTHWEST
IOWA COUNTIES WHICH COULD SEE AROUND 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN. AREAS
ALONG THE HEAVIER RAIN AXIS IN NEBRASKA WILL MORE LIKELY SEE
ANYWHERE FROM 0.5-1.25 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE ANY TRAINING STORMS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ENDING
BY AROUND 7PM WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO ONLY REACH
INTO THE 70S. EVEN AREAS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THAT LIKELY
WON'T SEE MUCH RAIN AT ALL WILL SEE HIGHS STAY IN THE MID-TO-
UPPER 70S DUE TO THE CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THURSDAY WE SEE ONE MORE VORT MAX ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS OUR AREA BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.
THIS COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING, BUT OUR
AIR MASS SHOULD BE TOO DRY FOR MUCH TO REACH THE GROUND AT THAT
POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY FAIRLY MILD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 80S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
EXPANDS EASTWARD, FILLING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S ON FRIDAY AND LOW-TO-MID 90S ON SATURDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY
RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL START WATCHING FOR RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 6PM TONIGHT.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IMPACTING LNK AND KOMA FROM
ABOUT 00Z TO 02Z THIS EVENING.
MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 9PM TONIGHT, AND
EXPAND AND SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE, BUT WILL PRODUCE SOME WIND GUSTS OF
40 MPH OR SO AND LEAVE MVFR CIGS AT KOMA AND PERHAPS KOFK AND
KLNK, TOO.
WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING IN FROM THE NORTH IS MOSTLY ELEVATED AT
5-8,000 FEET, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME AT THE SFC, TOO...
ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN EDGES OF THE AREA AS THE
TAF PERIOD CONTINUES.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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