811
FXUS63 KOAX 050256
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
956 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING (60-90%
CHANCE). A FEW OVERNIGHT COULD PRODUCE QUARTER-SIZE HAIL,
STRONG WINDS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- MILDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY WARMING BACK UP GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH. A SMALL
AMOUNT MAY BE FOUND AT THE SURFACE. MOST WILL BE ELEVATED AND
MAY PRODUCE SOME HAZY SKIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WE HAVE A LULL IN STORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. LOOKING AT
THE SURFACE ANALYSIS, THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED SOUTH OF THE
KANSAS STATE LINE AS HIGH PRESSURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WE'LL SEE THE NOCTURNAL LOW-
LEVEL JET RAMP UP TRIGGERING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF
THE SURFACE FRONT IN A REGION WITH MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND 40-50 KT OF SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER. THIS COULD LEAD
TO SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER-SIZE HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT STILL SEEMS
FAIRLY MARGINAL, IT WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY CAN BE GENERATED AS THE LLJ ADVECTS WARMER
AIR JUST ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE THE CANADIAN HIGH
PULLS COOLER AIR SOUTH.
EXPECT STORMS TO START TO REDEVELOP AROUND 11PM ALONG A
CORRIDOR NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF I-80, RAPIDLY EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE AND TRACKING EAST INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT. STORM MOTIONS
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WOULD SUPPORT SOME TRAINING OF STORMS
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHWEST IOWA COUNTIES INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ONCE THE FIRST ROUND CLEARS AROUND 7AM, CAMS SHOW A
POTENTIAL SECOND WAVE THAT WILL MOVE IN SHORTLY AFTER, BRINGING
A MORE SCATTERED CHANCE FOR MOSTLY SHOWERS AT THIS POINT. THE
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE WANING, DECREASING ANY
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WE HAVE LEFT THAT ISN'T CHEWED THROUGH BY
THE OVERNIGHT STORMS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
TAKING A STEP BACK AND LOOKING AT THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN, WE'RE
SEEING A TROUGH IN THE JET STREAM PULL THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WE'LL START TO SEE THIS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH SLIDE
EASTWARD, BRINGING BACK SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHILE THE RIDGE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST STARTS TO EXPAND EASTWARD. THIS WILL
START OUR WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE VERY PLEASANT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-
TO-MID 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL GET WARMER EACH DAY GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ONLY STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES.
THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE LOW-LEVEL JET FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
HELPING PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND.
WITH A STRONG NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE AS WELL AS ACTIVE
AND DIFFLUENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE JET LEVEL, WE COULD SEE
A CHANCE FOR NOCTURNAL STORMS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
AND AGAIN WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE PATTERN GOING INTO NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO HOLD FAIRLY
STEADY, CHARACTERIZED BY A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SHOULD KEEP US
IN THE TRANSITION ZONE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, GIVING US
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CPC'S 6-10 DAY
OUTLOOK BY A FORECAST LEANING WARMER AND WETTER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KOMA/KLNK:
MORE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP STARTING AROUND 01Z LIKELY
INITIALLY NORTH OF KOMA. BY AROUND 05Z STORMS SHOULD SPREAD
SOUTH INTO KOMA AND KLNK BRINGING CIGS BACK DOWN TO 700-1000FT
AND REDUCING VIS TO 3SM, LESS AT TIMES UNDER HEAVIER RAIN. MOST
CONFIDENT IN A PERIOD OF STORMS FROM 05-08Z, WITH STORMS
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED WITH LESS CHANCE OF LIGHTNING AFTER 08Z.
CIGS WILL REMAIN MOST LIKELY IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OF HEAVIER
RAIN THROUGH AROUND 15Z WITH CIGS IMPROVING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT SHIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY STARTING AROUND 15Z.
KOFK:
KOFK WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, REMAINING VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH OVERNIGHT WILL BE
SHIFTING TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BY AROUND 14Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page