246
FXUS63 KOAX 052314
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
614 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLEARING CONDITIONS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TO CAP OFF A
SPLENDID DAY, WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT LIKELY.
- MILDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY WARMING BACK UP GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.
- CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH ONLY
SMALL AMOUNT REACHING THE SURFACE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO FEATURE BROAD
TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS, WITH A
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED AT THE BASE SWEEPING SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
FARTHER TO THE EAST INTO MISSOURI AND IOWA. DRILLING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE, WE FIND OURSELVES IN A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH
THE FRONT ITSELF DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. ELEVATED SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY IS SLATED TO CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO IOWA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE BEING FURTHER
SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST, WITH EASTERLY WINDS TAKING OVER AT 5-10
MPH. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO JUST OVER 80 DEGREES ARE
SET TO CAP OFF AN EXCELLENT AFTERNOON WITH INCREASINGLY CLEAR
SKIES -- SETTING THE STAGE FOR FOG CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ARE SET TO DECREASE UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING NOCTURNAL
INVERSION OVERNIGHT, AS A RIDGE OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE HELPS CALM
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. HREF MODEL OUTPUT SIGNALS VERY LITTLE
INSULATING CLOUD COVER ASIDE FROM SOME LOW STRATUS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND IOWA, FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WHERE HEALTHY
RAINFALL OCCURRED THIS MORNING. CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
3-4 DEGREES ABOVE THE OVERNIGHT LOW, GIVING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO
THE DENSITY AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE FOG. SOME MODELS DO
LIMIT ITS FORMATION INTO NEBRASKA, FAVORING SOUTHERN IOWA AND
POINTS NORTHEAST, FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM TOMORROW MORNING.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
ONCE WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE STEADY
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, LINGERING AREAS OF FOG SHOULD CLEAR UP AND
LEAVE US WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER, BUT STILL PLEASANT DAY THAT TOPS
OUT IN THE 80S. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WE'LL BE PLOWING INTO A WARMING TREND
SPURRED ON BY MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES, A RETREATING JET STREAM, AND
BUILDING THERMAL RIDGING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. ONE HANGUP
WITH THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS JUST HOW MUCH WE WILL WARM. THE MIX-
HAPPY GFS/GEFS WILL STEER THE FORECAST TOWARDS HIGHS THAT REACH
WELL INTO THE 100S WHILE THE REST OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE A MUCH MORE TENTATIVE LEAN THAT SETS HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S (WHICH IS WHERE OUR FORECAST SITS AS
WELL). SURFACE DATA FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A LINGERING
BOUNDARY/FRONT THAT SITS ACROSS OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA, AND
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CLOUD/PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD
AFFECT THE HIGHS. A MODEST OVERLAPPING OF INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE
STORMS STRETCHES EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, PEAKING SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE ISN'T THERE QUITE YET TO PIN
ANY LOCATIONS DOWN ON A MAP, BUT DON'T BE SURPRISED IF SOMETHING
SHOWS UP FOR TOMORROW'S ISSUANCE OF THE DAY 3 SEVERE OUTLOOK
FROM THE SPC.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
CLOUDS REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH CIGS AROUND 2500-3500
FT AT KOMA AND KLNK. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL RELAX
THIS EVENING AS WELL SETTING UP AN IDEAL SCENARIO FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER
AREAS THAT SAW RAIN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS IMPACTING AT LEAST
KOMA AND KLNK. GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF FOG
DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRYING THAT HAS OCCURRED NEAR KOFK. MOST
GUIDANCE KEEPS FOG SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. PROBABLY A 20% CHANCE
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT HERE FROM AROUND 11-14Z. FOG WILL LINGER FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING, EXPECTED TO CLEAR AROUND
14-15Z. AT THIS POINT, WE COULD STILL SEE IFR CIGS THROUGH
AROUND 17Z BEFORE SKIES CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS TOMORROW WILL MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
08KTS, THOUGH KOFK COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20KT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MCCOY
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