224
FXUS63 KOAX 060246
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
946 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER A LARGE PORTION OF OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT CLEARING BY AROUND 10 AM THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURN STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH ONLY
SMALL AMOUNT REACHING THE SURFACE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
SATELLITE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH RIDGING
IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. THIS TROUGH HAS BROUGHT
A COOLER CANADIAN AIR MASS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH,
COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER, IS WHY TEMPERATURES WERE SO COOL
TODAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES HAVE DROPPED SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL CLIP FALLS
CITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT THE REST OF OUR AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY.
OVERNIGHT WE'LL START TO SEE BUILDING GP-HEIGHTS WITH THE RIDGE
TO OUR WEST SLOWLY EXPANDING EASTWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF OUR AREA SHOULD
SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. TO THE SOUTH, CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVER
THESE AREAS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE MORE CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THIS FOG ACROSS OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE
DENSE, AND EXPECT AT SOME POINT WE'LL NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR A LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA.
THURSDAY STARTS OUT FOGGY BUT THIS SHOULD CLEAR BY 10AM. THE
EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE EASTWARD AS WELL AS INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME SPOTS
IN NORTHERN KNOX COUNTY APPROACHING 90.
WE'LL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS STATIONARY RIDGE GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES,
WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE GFS'S TENDENCY TO OVER-MIX, WHICH CAUSES A SIGNIFICANT
WARM BIAS IN THESE PATTERNS. THE ECMWF AND OTHER LONG-RANGE
MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING INT HE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S. RAIN CHANCES AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER COULD
DAMPEN DAYTIME HIGHS AS WELL. SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL TAP INTO THE MOISTURE ADVECTING
IN FROM THE GULF LEADING TO NOCTURNAL STORM CHANCES STARTING
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE, PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ AND ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
CLOUDS REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH CIGS AROUND 2500-3500
FT AT KOMA AND KLNK. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ERODE SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL RELAX
THIS EVENING AS WELL SETTING UP AN IDEAL SCENARIO FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER
AREAS THAT SAW RAIN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS IMPACTING AT LEAST
KOMA AND KLNK. GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF FOG
DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRYING THAT HAS OCCURRED NEAR KOFK. MOST
GUIDANCE KEEPS FOG SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. PROBABLY A 20% CHANCE
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT HERE FROM AROUND 11-14Z. FOG WILL LINGER FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH THE MORNING, EXPECTED TO CLEAR AROUND
14-15Z. AT THIS POINT, WE COULD STILL SEE IFR CIGS THROUGH
AROUND 17Z BEFORE SKIES CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS TOMORROW WILL MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
08KTS, THOUGH KOFK COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20KT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
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