894
FXUS63 KOAX 061719
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1219 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURN STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH ONLY
SMALL AMOUNT REACHING THE SURFACE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
SATELLITE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH RIDGING
IN PLACE ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. THIS TROUGH HAS BROUGHT
A COOLER CANADIAN AIR MASS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH,
COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER, IS WHY TEMPERATURES WERE SO COOL
TODAY. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES HAVE DROPPED SOUTH OF OUR AREA
ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL CLIP FALLS
CITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT THE REST OF OUR AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY.
OVERNIGHT WE'LL START TO SEE BUILDING GP-HEIGHTS WITH THE RIDGE
TO OUR WEST SLOWLY EXPANDING EASTWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF OUR AREA SHOULD
SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. TO THE SOUTH, CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP OVER
THESE AREAS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE MORE CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THIS FOG ACROSS OUR AREA WILL LIKELY BE
DENSE, AND EXPECT AT SOME POINT WE'LL NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR A LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA.
THURSDAY STARTS OUT FOGGY BUT THIS SHOULD CLEAR BY 10AM. THE
EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE EASTWARD AS WELL AS INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SOME SPOTS
IN NORTHERN KNOX COUNTY APPROACHING 90.
WE'LL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS STATIONARY RIDGE GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES,
WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S OVER
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE
TO THE GFS'S TENDENCY TO OVER-MIX, WHICH CAUSES A SIGNIFICANT
WARM BIAS IN THESE PATTERNS. THE ECMWF AND OTHER LONG-RANGE
MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING INT HE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S. RAIN CHANCES AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER COULD
DAMPEN DAYTIME HIGHS AS WELL. SHORTWAVES RIDING DOWN THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL TAP INTO THE MOISTURE ADVECTING
IN FROM THE GULF LEADING TO NOCTURNAL STORM CHANCES STARTING
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE, PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO THE
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ AND ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING, WITH KOFK
EXPECTED TO SHORTLY SCATTER OUT AND KOMA/KLNK EXPECTED TO FOLLOW
SUIT BY 19Z, LEAVING US WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST. OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SOME SPEEDS OVER 15 KTS
POSSIBLE AT KOFK. OVERNIGHT, MVFR CEILINGS RETURN TO THE KOMA
TERMINAL AROUND 10Z, LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE CLEARING.
THOUGH IT REMAINS A SMALLER CHANCE, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH KOMA TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD, COMING FROM THE NORTH.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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