314
FXUS63 KOAX 061821
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
121 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE SHOTS AT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, WITH SATURDAY POSING THE GREATEST RISK FOR WIND
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. SEASONABLY
WARM WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH ONLY
SMALL AMOUNT REACHING THE SURFACE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE PERSISTENT TROUGH THAT
HAD BEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN WHILE A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA SPURS ON CONVECTION TO ITS
SOUTHEAST IN KANSAS AND MISSOURI. DREARY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY EASING UP WITH LESS AND LESS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS COMING
IN WITH LOWERED VISIBILITY. RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH OUR BEST BET COMING
FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK
BOUNDARY IN WESTERN NE/SD DRIFTING INTO THE AREA AFTER 9 PM.
OTHERWISE, IT'LL BE A DAY TO WATCH THE EDGES OF LOW CLOUD COVER
SLOWLY ERODE WHILE HIGHS REACH THE LOWER 80S (OR NEAR 90 IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA).
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY, MANIFESTING IN ONE
OF THE TWO FOLLOWING SCENARIOS: 1) ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
SD/IA/MN BORDER REGION THAT TRAVEL ALONG THE WESTERN IOWA BORDER
THROUGH 2 PM; OR 2) STORMS WAIT UNTIL 2-4 PM TO DEVELOP ALONG A
FRONT BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA TO THE SOUTH BY 10 PM.
FOR SCENARIO 1 (ANCHORED BY THE HRRR), MODEST SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ARE SET UP ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, WITH THAT NOSING/IMPINGING OF
THE FRONT SERVING AS THE FORCING. ONCE THE STORMS GET GOING,
THEY WOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP SOME SEMBLANCE OF A COLD POOL
THAT WOULD BRING 40+ MPH GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WITH THEM AS THEY
PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING WHERE A
MUCAPE GRADIENT WILL BE SET UP. SCENARIO 2 SEEMS TO POSE THE
GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER (CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTED IN A
LEVEL 1 RISK OUT OF 5), WHERE GREATER ACCESS TO LARGE-SCALE
INSTABILITY AND TO THE SURFACE EXISTS FOR MORE ORGANIZED OUTFLOW
TO DEVELOP. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALSO HAVE A WIDER AFFECTED AREA
DUE TO THE FRONTAL PLACEMENT BEING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. A COUPLE OF THE HREF MEMBERS DO
OUTPUT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS (NAM NEST AND FV3), WITH HAIL
LARGER THAN QUARTERS ALSO BEING POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD BE
PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY FLOODING CONCERNS BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL OUTPUT.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND:
DEPENDING ON WHAT UNFOLDS ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS ON THE MENU FOR THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. AN
INGREDIENTS-BASED APPROACH TO THE FORECAST DRAWS THE ATTENTION
QUICKLY TO A RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY ARCING FROM NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
DOWN TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER REGION. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED MID-
UPPER FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, PROVIDING ENHANCED SHEAR TO GO
ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SEVERE-
INTENSITY STORMS, IT'LL JUST BE A MATTER OF WHEN THEY DEVELOP.
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD CONTINUES TO EXIST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE FIELDS TEMPERATURE-WISE SATURDAY, BUT REGARDLESS A GRADIENT
IN THE SURFACE FIELDS WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. EITHER CONVERGENCE ALONG THAT GRADIENT OR THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT,
WITH THAT ACTIVITY WORKING WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. EARLY PEEKS AT THE EXTENDED CAMS INDICATE
ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 7 AM, WHILE ANY
DELAY IN ACTIVITY INTO THE LATER MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS WOULD
INCREASE THE OVERALL CEILING FOR ANY MCS THAT WOULD OCCUR. WITH
DEEPER-SHEAR VECTORS ALIGNING WITH THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT, A
HEALTHIER AND PROLONGED WIND THREAT SEEMS POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THO
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ARE ON TAP, WITH THE CAVEAT BEING THAT
STORMS COULD SOME VARIANCE BASED ON THE TIME OF DAY THEY MOVE
THROUGH.
BEYOND SATURDAY WE CONTINUE TO SEE OURSELVES ON THE NORTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE BROADER RIDGING PATTERN CENTERED TO THE WEST. WE'LL SEE
HIGHS TREND WARMER, BUT STILL RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. A PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE ORIENTED NEAR TO
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, KEEPING RAIN AND A STRAY STRONG STORM OR
TWO A LOW-END POSSIBILITY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING, WITH KOFK
EXPECTED TO SHORTLY SCATTER OUT AND KOMA/KLNK EXPECTED TO FOLLOW
SUIT BY 19Z, LEAVING US WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST. OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SOME SPEEDS OVER 15 KTS
POSSIBLE AT KOFK. OVERNIGHT, MVFR CEILINGS RETURN TO THE KOMA
TERMINAL AROUND 10Z, LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE CLEARING.
THOUGH IT REMAINS A SMALLER CHANCE, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH KOMA TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD, COMING FROM THE NORTH.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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