795
FXUS63 KOAX 071721
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1221 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND AND HAIL.
- THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCREASES SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH MORE LOCATIONS LIKELY HITTING 90 DEGREES ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH ONLY
A SMALL AMOUNT REACHING THE SURFACE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS HAVE HELD
STEADY TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE THE WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT AND DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE ONLY 1-4 DEGREES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
FOG/LOW STRATUS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING. WE THINK
THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW SPOTS WITH POOR VISIBILITY. THE
RAP HYDROLAPSE IS FAVORABLE FOR FOG ACROSS FAR EASTERN NE AND
WESTERN IA THROUGH SUNRISE.
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY EARLY THIS
MORNING NEAR OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST - LIKELY WHERE
SD/MN/IA COME TOGETHER. 1000-2000 MUCAPE AND ~35KTS OF 0-6 BULK
SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH THIS EARLY ROUND OF STORMS. THE FORCING ALONG AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT IS BETTER NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY, AND WE'LL
NEED TO WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. AS IT STANDS NOW, WE KEEP MOST OF THE
POPS IN WESTERN IA (15-30%), BUT FAR EASTERN NE IS STILL IN
PLAY. OF NOTE, WE RAISED SKY COVER A BIT (EVEN AFTER THE MORNING
STRATUS) BECAUSE THERE WILL BE A VEIL OF SMOKE ALOFT TODAY.
THIS CAN SOMETIMES CAUSE US TO BE 2-4 DEGREES TOO WARM ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES, AND IT WOULD ALSO KNOCK THE SUFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY BACK JUST A BIT.
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND ALSO AN INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD
IN BOTH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND HI-RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
REMAIN, BUT WESTERN IA LOOKS MORE IN HIGHER CONFIDENCE ZONE AT
THIS POINT - ESPECIALLY FOR QPF TOTALS. THERE IS ALSO A TIMING
ISSUE WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION EARLIER IN THE DAY, PERHAPS
WITH A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS, AND THEN
STRENGTHENING WITH UPSCALE GROWTH AS STORMS REACH THEIR
POTENTIAL ONCE THEY CROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING.
AFTER A COUPLE WARMER DAYS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE RIDGING
EASES BACK AND A MORE ZONAL FLOW RETURNS WITH THE UPPER JET
SAGGING FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. THAT'LL BE A
COOLER AND RELATIVELY WET PATTERN. THIS MEANS EARLY SIGNS OF
OPTIMISM FOR THE DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS OF NEBRASKA, COLORADO,
AND WYOMING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THEN
SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS GRADUALLY
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THEN EASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME, ANY SMOKE IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO
CAUSE AVIATION IMPACTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE
TRACKING EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION AND THE DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. FORECAST MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY
WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS. WILL FORGO ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE TAF UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLF
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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