954
FXUS63 KOAX 072314
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
614 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MOST OF THIS SMOKE REMAINS HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE, WITH ONLY
A SMALL AMOUNT REACHING THE SURFACE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT, BUT
SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS SUPPRESSING MUCH OF THIS
POTENTIAL. THAT SAID, PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD A
THUNDERSTORM BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS BECOME SEVERE.
OTHERWISE, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SUNNY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. WHILE IT MAY BE SUNNY, SKIES MAY
APPEAR MILKY AS WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
BEING CARRIED OVER THE REGION. LITTLE TO NO SURFACE IMPACT IS
EXPECTED FROM THIS SMOKE HOWEVER.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARDS WITH THE AID OF A
LOW-LEVEL JET SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY IN THE
MORNING. THESE MAY FORM INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER IN THE MORNING
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IF THIS
COMPLEX BECOMES SEVERE AND HOW LONG IT PERSISTS INTO OUR REGION.
THAT SAID, IF A COMPLEX DOES FORM, DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS. CLOUDS AND ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THE COMPLEX SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A TOUCH
COOLER DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL JET WILL IMPINGE ON
THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ONCE AGAIN. WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE TO WAFT OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
HEADING THROUGH SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST BUILDS SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO PUSH INTO THE LOW 90S AS A RESULT. THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE PUSHES INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THESE REPEATED
TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AND
WILL KEEP AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH ACTIVE WEATHER ANTICIPATED. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THIS
PATTERN GENERALLY HOLDS, THOUGH OVERALL TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES INCREASES. WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO WAFT OVER THE
REGION. RAIN CHANCES ARE LARGELY FOCUSED OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET. SEVERE
WEATHER MAY CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS MODERATE WINDS ALOFT AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION. WITH THE REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS,
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DIP THROUGH THE 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN REACH THE 70S FOR HIGHS LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FORECAST. WINDS WILL WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE... MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE
EMERGING OUT OF THE EAST AFTER SUNRISE. SPEEDS PICK UP AFTER
SUNRISE, AVERAGING SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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