053
FXUS63 KOAX 080443
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1143 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE (20%) ON SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MOST OF THIS SMOKE REMAINS HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE, WITH ONLY
A SMALL AMOUNT REACHING THE SURFACE.
- REGULAR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
WITH CHANCES EVERY DAY. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT BRING THE BEST CHANCES (40-70%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERNMOST
COUNTIES OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH THE ONLY CLOUDS BETRAYING
THE FRONT'S EXACT LOCATION. OTHERWISE, SKIES ARE GENERALLY
CLOUD FREE BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS TINTED WITH
WILDFIRE SMOKE AT 7KFT TO 12KFT. THANKFULLY, IT'S EXPECTED TO
STAY ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
THE UPPER PATTERN REVEALS OUR COLD FRONT IS TIED TO A SHORTWAVE TROF
WORKING THROUGH ONTARIO AND A RIDGE SPINNING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. OUR PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE TROFING CONTINUES EAST AND THE RIDGING SOUTHWEST OF
HERE DAMPENS.
TONIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, SLOWLY BECOMING
EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE IN PLACE IN FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE.
CONFIDENCE HAD BEEN GROWING IN THE ARRIVAL OF A SATURDAY AM MCS
PUSHING FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER THE LAST TWO RUNS OF
THE HRRR ARE NOW BACKING OFF.
CAM GUIDANCE HAS THE COMPLEX DEVELOPING IN SOUTH- CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA OVERNIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A NOCTURNAL LLJ IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT. THAT ELEVATED STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 10AM AND MAY (5-10%) CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER (MOSTLY HAIL) AND HOW LONG THE
CONVECTION CAN BE MAINTAINED. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VACILLATING ON
HOW LONG IT KEEPS THE CONVECTION RUMBLING. WITH 750 AND 500 HPA
TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE DAY, LAPSE RATES WILL BE FALLING. THE
STORM WOULD LIKELY NEED TO BE BUOYED BY A COLD POOL TO MAKE IT
TO THE MISSOURI STATE LINE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE BOTH
POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HELP KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION AT BAY BY MIXING THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
TEMPS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA PEAKED IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY WHILE
OMAHA, LINCOLN, AND A HANDFUL OF SITES SOUTH OF I-80 SNUCK UP TO 90
BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHED THROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WON'T
BE ALL THAT FAR OFF WITH LOWER- TO MID-80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
DESPITE FALLING HEIGHTS. SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO REFLECT 20-55% OF
SUNSHINE BEFORE IT FINDS ITS WAY TO THE SFC. WINDS WILL BE
ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF THE SOUTH BY SUNSET.
MORE THUNDER IS POSSIBLE (30%) IN WESTERN IOWA AGAIN BEGINNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LLJ INTERACTS WITH THE WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO BE SITTING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AT
THAT POINT IN TIME. LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST HAIL COULD
DAMAGE IOWAN HOMES. AS THE SPC MENTIONS, CONFIDENCE REMAINS "RATHER
LOW".
SUNDAY
SUNDAY WILL BE SPENT IN THE WARM SECTOR LEAVING TEMPS SOARING PAST
THE 90F MARK THANKS IN PART TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. MODELS HAVE A WIDE
RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS WHICH KEEPS CONFIDENCE PARTICULARLY LOW,
BUT THE SPC DOES HAVE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER (CATEGORY 1
OF 5). THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS INITIAL AFTERNOON / EVE DEVELOPMENT
SOMEWHERE IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THAT PUSHES EAST. THE EURO IS
GUNG HO ON THIS IDEA.
NEXT WEEK
THE GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE
WITH THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
LIKELY POPS (40-70%) IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN THE SUMMER
NOCTURNAL JET SITS PERPENDICULAR TO THAT FRONT. THIS WILL
PRODUCE EFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT. WITH THE EXTRA CLOUDS AND
RAIN, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE TO MEET SEASONAL NORMS. IN
FACT, EARLY NUMBERS FROM THE NBM SUGGEST DAY 7 WILL PEAK IN THE
70S (FRIDAY 8/14).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FORECAST. WINDS WILL WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE... MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE
EMERGING OUT OF THE EAST AFTER SUNRISE. SPEEDS PICK UP AFTER
SUNRISE, AVERAGING SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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