972
FXUS63 KOAX 082333
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
633 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- REGULAR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRING
THE BEST CHANCES (40-70%).
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVERHEAD FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MOST OF THIS SMOKE REMAINS HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE, WITH ONLY A
SMALL AMOUNT REACHING THE SURFACE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS PERSISTED INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA DESPITE LESS THAN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BEING AIDED BY GRAVITY WAVES AS
EVIDENCED BY HASTINGS RADAR DATA AND A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED
MCV. THIS COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS IT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN-CENTRAL NEBRASKA, SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA, AND FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA. SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE THREAT IS VERY LOW
(5%). IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. OUTSIDE OF THIS, HAZY SKIES
DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM
THE AFOREMENTIONED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER AND THE NOSE OF A LOW-
LEVEL JET ARE FORECAST TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR
WESTWARD THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR, BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(15-30%) OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA TONIGHT. THE BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PRIMARILY
JUST EAST OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE THREAT IS LOW
(5%).
A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN BUILDS SLIGHTLY. THIS HELPS PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 90S. TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN APPROACH 100 ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA, THOUGH THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. CONTINUED WILDFIRE
SMOKE ALOFT WILL LIMIT SOLAR INSOLATION AND COULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS HOT AS THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE ABLE
TO. THAT SAID, IT WILL BE HUMID WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100.
THE HEAT DOES NOT LAST AS REPEATED WEAK TROUGHS ROUNDING THE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST EACH
DAY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED
MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD WITH THE AID OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET TO HELP OVERCOME WARM LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THAT
SAID, CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SUBJECT TO
CHANGE WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES POTENTIALLY HELPING DEVELOP
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. THE OVERALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS RELATIVELY LOW (20-40%) UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK
WHEN CHANCES INCREASE (40-70%). WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
MODERATE MID-LEVEL WINDS, SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH THIS THREAT REMAINS LOW (5%). DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL WOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, A COMBINATION OF REPEATED RAIN, CLOUD COVER, AND
DECREASING HEIGHTS DECREASE TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON. IT
APPEARS TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN FALL INTO THE MID 70S BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY PERSIST OVER THE COMING WEEK AS NORTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT KEEP SMOKE IN THE VICINITY. MOST OF THIS SMOKE
REMAINS ALOFT WITH VERY LITTLE REACHING THE SURFACE. THAT SAID,
HAZY SKIES ARE LIKELY WITH AT LEAST A MINOR DECREASE TO AIR
QUALITY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO AVOID THE THREE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVERNIGHT, BUT CHANCES AT TAF SITES ARE
WELL BELOW 30% AND ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH LLWS RAMPING UP AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 40 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND AT
FL017 THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL THREE SITES.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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