481
FXUS63 KOAX 092316
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- REGULAR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT BRING
THE BEST CHANCES (40-70%).
- HOT CONDITIONS LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA,
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100 OR MORE LINGERING INTO
MONDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO FEATURE SLIGHT
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THAT TERMINATES TO THE
EAST WITH A SHORTWAVE-POWERED MCS THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ZOOMING IN LOCALLY, A SOMEWHAT
MESSY PATTERN IS IN PLACE WITH A SWATH OF LEFTOVER STRATUS
CREATING A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WHILE JUST TO THE WEST,
AN AREA OF SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH GREATER VERTICAL EXTENT PUSH
EASTWARD TOWARDS IT. OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN COMING IN RATHER
SOUP-EY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA, WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S ALONGSIDE QUICKLY-CLIMBING
TEMPERATURES HAVE LED TO HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S
ALREADY. LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND COULD CURB HOW HIGH APPARENT TEMPERATURES REACH,
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE
FOR PAWNEE/RICHARDSON/NEMAHA COUNTIES THROUGH 8 PM, WHERE THE
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THERE IS SOME CHANCE
THAT AN EXPANSION IS NEEDED TO THE NORTH, PARTICULARLY INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA.
OTHER THAN THE HEAT, WE'LL BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SOME VERY MINOR
RAIN CHANCES AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INTERSECTS A BOUNDARY LAID ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.CHANCES
INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA
AROUND MIDNIGHT, CARRYING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOG
FORMATION BECOMES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
WHERE LIMITED MIXING KEEPS DEWPOINTS HIGHER. EFFICIENT COOLING
MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY CLOUD DEBRIS BEING WAFTED IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH BOTH OF THOSE FACTORS IN MIND, IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO
KEEP PATCHY FOG FORECASTED, BUT WIDESPREAD FOG WOULD SEEM
SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP. PRIMARY TIME FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE 5 AM, LASTING UNTIL 9 AM.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY, WITH EARLY MORNING
FOG/LINGERING LOW CLOUDS LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR THAT HEAT AND ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP AS WELL. HEAT INDICES ARE NOT
FORECASTED TO BE AS HIGH (95-102) AS EXTRA MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO WAFT OVERHEAD. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE A BETTER
SHOT AT GETTING OFF THE STARTING LINE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS STRONG
HEATING AND MODEST CONVERGENCE OCCURS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP INCREASE SHEAR VALUES AND GIVE
STORMS A BETTER SHOT AT HOLDING TOGETHER, BUT THAT WILL ALL DEPEND
ON THEM FORMING IN THE FIRST PLACE (20-25% CHANCE). BETTER CHANCES
FOR THE REGION DEVELOP WITH THE LLJ RAMPING UP AFTER SUNSET BUT AS
OF NOW, IT OVERSHOOTS THE ARE TO IGNITE STORMS IN SOUTH DAKOTA
INSTEAD.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND:
PUSHING INTO THE WORK WEEK, WE ARE SET TO HAVE ONE MORE WARM DAY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE WE SEE TEMPS TUMBLE HEADING INTO THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM THE SEMI-
PERSISTENT BUT WEAK RIDGE INTO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WITH THE MAIN
JET STREAM SHIFTING SOUTH TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR GREATER ACCESS TO INCREASED SHEAR, FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. WE'LL SEE COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND EVEN 70S AT TIMES WITH NEARLY
DAILY RAIN/STORM CHANCES, WITH TIMING/INTENSITY TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN
AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS ARE PASSING THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING, BUT ARE ISOLATED AND EXPECTED TO BE THE EXCEPTION
RATHER THAN THE RULE. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE,
BUT WITH ODDS AT 10-20% MAXIMUM FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT TO 4AM,
CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT KLNK AND KOMA. KOFK
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
TO VARY IN DIRECTION AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ091>093.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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