900
FXUS63 KOAX 101638
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1138 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- REGULAR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (80%) AND THURSDAY NIGHT
(40-70%) BRING THE BEST CHANCES.
- HOT CONDITIONS LINGER WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100 OR
MORE LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING AT 500 HPA AS
THE RIDGING IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA IS DAMPENED. A JET STREAK
OVER THE DAKOTAS IS PRODUCING SOME ELEVATED DIFFLUENCE OVER THIS
AREA AND HELPING PRODUCE SOME WIDESPREAD FORCING FOR ASCENT. AT
THE SFC, A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED IN FAR NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.
THE LLJ IS STARTING TO RAMP UP, TOO. THE VWP AT TWX (TOPEKA)
SHOWED WIND SPEEDS AT 2KFT DOUBLING FROM 8PM TO 9PM.
AS THE WINDS PICKED UP AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASED (WARM
AIR PUSHED UP OVER THE COOLER NEBRASKAN AIR), WE'VE WATCHED SOME
UPDRAFTS DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE CWA.
THERE IS AMPLE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE (4-5,000 J/KG) AND
MARGINALLY ENOUGH SHEAR, BUT THE AREA THAT ENJOYS (?) BOTH SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO THE SMALL AREA ALONG THE
NE/KS/MO/IA STATE LINES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LACK OF
SHEAR HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SOME STRONG BUT SHORT- LIVED
UPDRAFTS. FOR THAT REASON, SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE HARD TO
PRODUCE. STILL, LARGE HAIL UP TO 1.75" AND PERHAPS A DAMAGING
WIND GUST IS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE CWA BY 4AM, BUT ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE KS STATE
LINE COULD CONTINUE AS LATE AS NOON.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER-60S UP NORTH TO MIDDLE-70S WHERE
NEBRASKA/MISSOURI/KANSAS MEET.
MONDAY
THE FRONT REMAINS MOSTLY UNDISTURBED ALONG THE KS STATE LINE LEAVING
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES JUST SOUTH OF HERE (MID- TO UPPER-90S)
WHILE WE PEAK NEAR SEASONAL NORMS OF MID-80S TO NEAR 90. HEAT
INDICES WILL FALL SHY OF TODAY'S NUMBERS AND PEAK MOSTLY IN THE 90S.
SW IOWA SHOULD MANAGE 100-105 AND JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, BUOYANCY SPIKES AT NEAR 5,000 J/KG
OF CAPE AGAIN, BUT CIN VALUES MAY KEEP A LID ON ALL THE
ACTIVITY. BETTER CHANCES OF INITIATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN OR CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS WILL WORK IN THIS
DIRECTION AND MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD
THEY FIND THEIR WAY THIS FAR EAST. OUR BEST POPS (10-25%) WAIT
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE WESTERN CONVECTION APPROACHES.
STORMS WILL GET A SHOT IN THE ARM FROM THAT PESKY LLJ DEVELOPING
AFTER DARK. IT WILL BE POINTED DIRECTLY AT THE FRONT STILL
HANGING ALONG KANSAS BORDER.
TUESDAY
TUESDAY'S TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN MONDAY'S BY JUST A FEW
DEGREES AND WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH THANKS TO
CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THOSE FEW DEGREES WILL BE
INSTRUMENTAL IN PUSHING HEAT INDICES INTO DANGEROUS TERRITORY
ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF THE OMAHA METRO AS HEAT INDICES SHOULD APPROACH
100-110.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE A LOT LIKE THOSE OF MONDAY, DEPENDENT
ON A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FINDING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST... PROBABLY AFTER DARK. BY THIS POINT, THOSE
STORMS MAY BE RUNNING ON A COLD POOL AND PRODUCING A SWATH OF
DAMAGING WINDS.
.THE REST OF THE FORECAST..
LOW-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF KEEPS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
STREAMING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CORN BELT
THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. REGULAR OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDER CONTINUE WITH THE AREA REMAINING ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SQUAT RIDGE. AS A SFC LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, IT WILL TAP INTO PWAT VALUES OF 1.75"+
WHICH IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF MID-AUGUST VALUES (NAEFS).
THE WPC HAS THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED WITH A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 4)
OF FLOODING WEDNESDAY AND A SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 4) ON THURSDAY AS
THE RAIN CONTINUES. NBM PROBABILITIES OF SEEING 1" OR MORE OF
PRECIP OVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY PEAK AT 60-70% ALONG A RIBBON
OF FARMLAND FROM NEAR COLUMBUS TO OMAHA TO ATLANTIC, IA. AREAS
BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS RIBBON HAVE LESSER CHANCES.
COOLER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN
MOST LOCATIONS WILL PEAK ONLY IN THE 70S.
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGING IN THE OVERALL PATTERN, REGULAR
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, TOO. IT'S A GOOD SIGN FOR THOSE OF US FAMILIAR
WITH THE CURRENT STATE OF THE DROUGHT MONITOR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
AN AREA OF FOG AND LOW-LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS OVER EAST-CENTRAL
IS BREAKING UP AND IMPROVING LATE THIS MORNING. WHILE PATCHY
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE, PRIMARILY AT KOFK,
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
BY 10/18-19Z. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS
AT FL090 IMPROVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT (AFTER 11/06Z). CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE REMAINS LOW,
WITH A 25% OF SHOWERS AT KOFK AND 15% AT KOMA AND KLNK. GUSTY
WINDS (ISOLATED UP TO 50 KTS) AND PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...WOOD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page