292
FXUS63 KOAX 110443
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1143 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 110 DEGREES.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT (70-85% CHANCE) AND
CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
THE PATTERN REMAINED PRIMARILY UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH A SQUAT MID-LEVEL RIDGE SPINNING OVER THE DESSERT
SOUTHWEST AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW STRETCHING FROM MONTANA THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT TURNING THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUING EAST INTO NEBRASKA.
AT 10PM TONIGHT, WE'RE WATCHING SOME GLACIATION IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA DUE IN PART TO WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH AND A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH. THESE UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ROOTED BELOW THE
INVERSION AT ABOUT 750 HPA. BETTER CHANCES OF DEEP CONVECTION
WAIT FOR THE COMPLEXES THAT HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF HERE TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION AND
PATH OF THE COMPLEX WORKING ITS WAY DIAGONALLY ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA, FOLLOWING A THETA-E GRADIENT. THE HRRR HAS BEEN WAVERING
ON WHETHER TO BRING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT THE OAX CWA,
BUT SOLUTIONS THAT DO BRING IT THIS WAY SEEM TO BE COMING AT A
SLOWER PACE THAN EARLIER. OTHER 00Z CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS
ARE MORE CONSISTENTLY FARTHER SOUTH, WHICH WOULD CLIP THE CWA
WITH SEVERE CRITERIA WIND. THE LAST FEW HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
KEEPING THE SD MCC WELL NORTH OF SIOUX CITY AND NEBRASKA, BUT
HAVE ALLOWED THE DYING CONVECTION WEST OF HERE TO BE
REINVIGORATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE
MCC PASSES 75 MILES NORTH OF IT. THESE INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD
BE MONITORED FOR SEVERE GUSTS OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL,
BUT SEVERE WEATHER HAS LESS THAN A 10% PROBABILITY FROM THESE
POSSIBLE CELLS. I'D PUT THE CHANCE OF A WARNING NEEDING TO BE
ISSUED FROM THE NORTHERN COMPLEX AT ABOUT 15-20% AS OF 11PM.
SHOULD IT END UP FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED, DAMAGING
WIND WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
TUESDAY
THE LAST OF THE SMALL CHANCES OF CONVECTION (10%) COULD LINGER
ALONG THE WARM FRONT / KS STATE LINE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY.
ANOTHER HOT ONE IS EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN OVER-PERFORMING
VS NBM STATISTICS, SO HAVE SWAPPED AFTERNOON NUMBERS OUT WITH
SOME A LITTLE HIGHER (70S) FROM OTHER SOURCES (RAP + MORE). THE
SCORCHING HEAT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD MANAGE 90S AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY BEST THE
NUMBERS OF MONDAY BY A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES
PAST THE 105 MARK AND FOR THAT REASON A HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST IOWA AND AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE OMAHA
METRO. ONLY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR A LEFTOVER COLD POOL COULD
SPOIL THE FUN.
THE PERIOD'S BEST CHANCES AT LIGHTNING AND THUNDER ARE
DEPENDENT, ONCE AGAIN, ON THE LONGEVITY AND TRACK OF A
PROSPECTIVE STORM COMPLEX WORKING OUT OF WESTERN SODAK. LIKE
TONIGHT, BEST CHANCES REMAIN NORTH OF HERE. (10-20% POPS IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA AFTER DARK).
WEDNESDAY
WEDNESDAY'S PRECIP CHANCES (70-85% FOR MOST) REPRESENT THE BEST
OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE AND LIFT IS MAXIMIZED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SFC LOW ALONG THAT FRONT FROM WEST TO
EAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WEST OF HERE AND THOSE STORMS WILL BE FIGHTING CAPPING AS THEY
PUSH CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER.
BEYOND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BRINGS ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE CWA (75-85% FROM COLUMBUS TO OMAHA TO DES
MOINES). QPF EXPECTATIONS HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CONSISTENT, BUT
THE HEAVIEST AXIS HAS SHIFTED FROM THE CWA'S MID-SECTION TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. DESI CONTINUES WITH A 60-70% CHANCE
OF 1"+ OVER THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... BUT THAT
BAND OF BEST PROBABILITY HAS SHIFTED NORTH BY ABOUT 70 MILES.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND EASTERLY FLOW, TEMPS SHOULD BE
RELEGATED TO THE 70S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO KANSAS APPROACH 90F.
REGULAR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKING INCREASINGLY WET
(65% MAX POPS). THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A
DAMPENED RIDGING PATTERN THAT SHOULD LEAVE THIS CWA NEAR THE
"RING OF FIRE" AND ABLE TO TAP INTO MONSOONAL MOISTURE WHENEVER
IT IS CALLED UPON.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING ARE FORECAST TO
LINGER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT
WILL BE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WORKING ALONG THE SD STATE
LINE. IT'S LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH OF ALL TAF SITES, SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IT IN THIS FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOME STRONG WINDS OFF THE SFC, ESPECIALLY AT
KLNK WHERE SFC WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN THE
WINDS AT FL012 THAT WILL BE STREAKING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT
40-50 KNOTS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 10AM.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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