862
FXUS63 KOAX 131729
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1229 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAINFALL RUNOFF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
THE OMAHA AND COUNCIL BLUFFS METRO AREA WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES IN SEVERAL STREAMS AND RIVERS
TODAY
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OCCURS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
RIDGING IS EVIDENT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS ON THIS EVENING'S
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. OVERSHOOTING TOPS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA ARE
RUNNING -85C. THE KLNX RADAR IS LIT UP WITH SEVERE CONVECTION THAT'S
HEADED THIS WAY. IT'S TIED TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. UPSCALE
GROWTH HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE WESTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE RESULTANT MCV CHUGGING
INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
BRINGING A SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS. SOME GUSTS OF 75MPH+ ARE
POSSIBLE (5% AT ANY GIVEN POINT). LARGE HAIL AND A QLCS TYPE TORNADO
CAN'T BE RULED OUT (2%), BUT FLASH FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAIN IS
MUCH MORE LIKELY (15%+). GUIDANCE DOES HAVE THE STRONGEST WINDS
TENDING TO FIZZLE OUT BEFORE THE STORMS HIT THE MISSOURI RIVER.
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIE ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER AND
ANOTHER LLJ IS RAMPING UP AND TRANSPORTING PLENTY OF MOISTURE
OVER THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE. OUR 00Z BALLOON SHOWED 1.6" OF
PWAT WHICH IS OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF
4,000 METERS MEANS THE RAIN WILL BE EFFICIENT.
THE HREF HAS PROBABILITY OF 3"+ OF RAIN IN THREE HOURS AT
30-50% FOR ALL AREAS NORTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER / I-680. IT'S
CLOSER TO 50-80% FOR 1"+ OF PRECIP IN 3 HOURS. CURRENT FFG
SUGGESTS 2-3" IN THREE HOURS WOULD BE ABOUT ALL SOIL COULD
HANDLE. THANKFULLY, THE SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT
THERE WON'T BE MUCH FOR TRAINING / REPEATING ROUNDS OF RAIN.
STILL, I EXPECT A RIBBON OF 3-5" RAINFALL REPORTS.
THURSDAY
THE LAST OF THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
8AM ALTHOUGH SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH MID-
MORNING AROUND THE SD STATE LINE.
TEMPS WILL HAVE A WIDE RANGE FROM NORTH (77F) TO THE SOUTH (95F)
WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES PAST THE 100F
MARK. SHOULD THE FORECAST PAN OUT, A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS / OUTFLOW AS POSSIBLE FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT.
A 15-20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
INSTABILITY PEAKS NEAR 4000 J/KG. CONVECTION IS CONDITIONAL,
MEANING IT'S MOST LIKELY TO NEVER DEVELOP, BUT IF IT IS ABLE TO
BUST THROUGH THE INHIBITION, A SUPERCELL IS POSSIBLE WHICH
SUGGESTS WIND AND HAIL DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE. AGAIN, THIS IS LESS
THAN LIKELY (20%).
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP WAIT AGAIN UNTIL AFTER DARK FOR THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER MCV/MCS THAT ORIGINATES IN THE FRONT RANGE.
WE'LL ALSO WATCH POPS CLIMB AS THE LLJ RAMPS UP AGAIN. THE HREF
SUGGEST RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LESS THAN THOSE OF EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, BUT SHOULD ANOTHER 2-3" FALL ON TONIGHT'S SOGGIEST
LOCATIONS, FLASH FLOODING WOULD ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND
TEMPS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL AGAIN HAVE A 15-20 DEGREE
DISCREPANCY FROM NORTH (70S) TO SOUTH (90S). REGULAR
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS REMAIN (40-60% FRIDAY) AND (60-70%)
FOR SATURDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM AROUND
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER TX. POPS PEAK OVERNIGHT THANKS TO
THAT NOCTURNAL SUMMER JET.
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
LEAVING SUNDAY THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK SO FAR. WITH THE SFC
HIGH SETTLING INTO THE AREA, SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AND THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY.
BEYOND
GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK WITH
THE EURO BRINGING A TROF THROUGH THE AREA, THE CANADIAN A RIDGE,
AND THE GFS SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE. WILL KEEP REGULAR 20% POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK, WHICH ISN'T FAR FROM AUGUST
CLIMATOLOGY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
KOFK: MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA THIS EVENING; HOWEVER, TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN FOR THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS RIGHT NOW WILL BE AFTER 07Z AS A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVES
IN, BUT COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER.
KOMA/KLNK: VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COMPLEX
OF STORMS. STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z
COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. KLNK WOULD BE FIRST IN LINE TO
HAVE THIS POTENTIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS COME THROUGH. A COUPLE OF
MODELS ARE SHOWING MAYBE SOME EARLIER STORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN
05 AND 08Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH WITH THAT SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...ANW
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