490
FXUS63 KOAX 131849
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
149 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- PERIODIC DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LOCATION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID-80S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AND THE MID-80S TO LOW/MID-90S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH RIDGING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST. CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO
LINGER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. EXPECTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO MID-80S FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM DAVID CITY, NE TO HARLAN, IA. AREAS SOUTH OF
THIS LINE CAN EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-80S TO MID-90S.
RETURN FLOW IS BRINGING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL
PLAY A FACTOR IN OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS.
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS (20-30%) WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED NEAR THE
KS/NE BORDER. SBCAPE VALUES OF 2500+ J/KG, MLCAPE OF 3000+ J/KG, AND
DCAPE OF 1000+ J/KG ARE EXPECTED. PWAT VALUES OF 1/7+ ARE ALSO
EXPECTED. SHOULD ANY STORMS BE ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, SOME HAIL AND WIND WOULD BE EXPECTED. AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT, WE WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HEAVY RAIN, AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN WITH OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING CONVECTION.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, TAPERING OFF
WEST TO EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VARIABLE BASED ON
LOCATION, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE CLOUD
COVER AND POTENTIAL STORM CHANCES COULD IMPACT OUR ABILITY TO WARM
UP.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY (LOW TO MID-80S
NORTH; MID-80S TO LOW 90S SOUTH). SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. RETURN FLOW BRINGS MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AND ONCE AGAIN, THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS IN IN FROM THE
DAKOTAS.
WE'LL ENJOY A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID-70S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID-80S ALONG THE KS/MO/NE/IA
BORDER. SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
KOFK: MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE TO VFR BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA THIS EVENING; HOWEVER, TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN FOR THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS RIGHT NOW WILL BE AFTER 07Z AS A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVES
IN, BUT COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM A COUPLE HOURS EARLIER.
KOMA/KLNK: VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COMPLEX
OF STORMS. STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z
COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. KLNK WOULD BE FIRST IN LINE TO
HAVE THIS POTENTIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS COME THROUGH. A COUPLE OF
MODELS ARE SHOWING MAYBE SOME EARLIER STORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN
05 AND 08Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH WITH THAT SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW
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