639
FXUS63 KOAX 140515
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1215 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH ISOLATED POCKET
OF SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT, WITH POCKETS OF 2-3+ INCHES POSSIBLE.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A FEW STORMS POTENTIALLY BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING DEPICTS A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH, WITH THE LOCAL AREA
POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO ROUND THE
RIDGE AND BRING PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE MOVES FROM THE FRONT RANGE TOWARDS THE MID-MO VALLEY.
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT, COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ
NOSING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA, SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEST-
TO-EAST ORIENTED CLUSTER OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
THETA-E GRADIENT AROUND MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE, THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST KS ALONG A NORTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT, AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PROGRESS INTO SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA OVERNIGHT.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH A CORRIDOR OF
1750-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN NE INTO WESTERN IA
AND DECREASING NORTHWARD. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR, WITH ONLY 20-25 KTS OF BULK SHEAR IN PLACE. EVEN SO, THIS
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER PULSES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED POCKETS OF HAIL (UP TO 1-1.25") AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (UP
TO 60 MPH). ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TOWARD THE HEAVY-RAINFALL AND
FLASH-FLOODING POTENTIAL, AS TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENCOUNTER
PWATS OF 2-2.25 INCHES AND WARM-CLOUD DEPTH OF 4-4.5 KM, SUPPORTING
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 2.5-3.5 INCHES WITHIN A RELATIVELY NARROW EAST-
TO-WEST CORRIDOR, WITH THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REMAINING THE
LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT OF THIS BAND. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TOWARD
AREAS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. THIS WOULD
SHIFT THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM SOME LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST TOTALS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS NARROW
AXIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED NEAR THE SATURATED SOILS.
STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT,
THOUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS AN MCV
DRIFTS IN FROM THE WEST. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA, RETURNING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE TO INCREASE. HIGHS
SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST
IA, WHILE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST
NE.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA AS WE
REMAIN IN A WAA REGIME, THE MCV MEANDERS ACROSS THE AREA, AND MODEST
INSTABILITY REDEVELOPS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL AGAIN BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AT AROUND 25 KTS, THOUGH A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY ISOLATED, WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING INTO THE EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS. THE
BULK OF THIS LATER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-80
WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND AREA OF CONVERGENCE RESIDES.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...
HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA TO THE LOWER 80S TOWARDS NORTHEAST NE.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY
REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AN INITIAL
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING AS A REMNANT MCV PASSES NEARBY, SUPPORTING 20-30% POPS.
CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION, WITH POPS INCREASING TO 50-75%.
QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING THE EXTENT OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND
SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION, THOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-80.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE STALLED
BOUNDARY IS FINALLY PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA, ALLOWING MORE
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF CAA TO SETTLE IN.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO
HANG AROUND THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AROUND 15-30% WILL CONTINUE AS DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE
AREA, WITH IMPROVED CHANCES (30-60%) TUESDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING ON EXACT TIMING AND IF
THEY'LL IMPACT TAF SITES. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE 40 KT WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS TO SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AT OMA AND LNK, AND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY AT OFK.
GUIDANCE FAVORS CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AND MAYBE FOG AFTER
06Z. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT LARGELY UNDER 10 KTS. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHEASTERLY AT OMA AND LNK
DURING THE DAY, BEFORE A RETURN TO NORTHEASTERLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...CA
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