148
FXUS63 KOAX 151115
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
615 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND, BRIEFLY CLEARING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS DROPPING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY-MONDAY.
- PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LATE WEEK LOOKING MILD AND DRY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
A BAND OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH
AND APPEAR LIKELY TO LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THEY WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME A FAIRLY STOUT DRY LAYER BELOW 700-MB, A FEW 00Z CAMS
SHOW THEY COULD PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED POPS OVERNIGHT FOR THESE AREAS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
OF THESE STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO ANYTHING SEVERE THOUGH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WE HAD A LIMITED AREA FOR POTENTIAL STORMS THIS EVENING OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA, BUT CLOUD COVER KEPT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TOO
COOL FOR AIR PARCELS TO BE ABLE TO LIFT ABOVE THE INVERSION IN
PLACE AROUND 750-800 MB. WE SAW AGITATED CU TRY TO DEVELOP, BUT
NOTHING WAS ABLE TO TAKE OFF. NOW THE SHORTWAVE HAS PASSED,
PRECIP CHANCES HAVE DWINDLED, WITH CLOUDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO BREAK UP ACROSS OUR AREA. MORE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING EXPECTED
OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SETTING UP AN EXCELLENT SCENARIO FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST, MORE AS LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY STILL LIKELY FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM SEWARD TO PLATTSMOUTH, EAST TO
RED OAK, IA. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR A PORTION
OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, BUT IT'S UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME THE
EXTENT OF POTENTIAL DENSE FOG.
MEANWHILE, RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS LED TO RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS.
MAPLE CREEK NEAR NICKERSON IS CRESTING JUST AROUND MINOR FLOOD
STAGE HERE AT 8-9PM, SO A FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED ALONG THIS
CREEK THROUGH 10PM.
ZOOMING BACK OUT TO THE BIG PICTURE, A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MO RIVER
VALLEY. SHORTWAVES INDUCING MESOSCALE VORTICITY MAXIMA HAVE
BEEN TRIGGERING OUR SHOWERS AND STORMS THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. THE GOOD NEWS IS TONIGHT IS LOOKING PRETTY QUIET, BUT
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS TO THE REGION. MORNING CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY, BUT STEEP
LAPSE RATES AROUND 750-600 MB WILL CREATE ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING.
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WITH THIS MCV SHOULD STAY DOWN IN NORTHEAST
KS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MORE
LIKELY WE SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY, STARTING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
MCV AROUND 6AM, DIMINISHING MID-MORNING, AND REIGNITING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 3PM-ISH CLEARING EAST BY 7PM.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
ELEVATED THERMAL FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
ORGANIZED AS THOUGH WE HAVE PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY,
SHEAR THROUGH THE STORM LAYER IS RELATIVELY WEAK.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY PUTTING US IN
MORE ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS THIS OCCURS, WE SEE A
PUSH OF NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS FINALLY CLEAR THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CLEAR ANY
LINGERING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AND LIMIT OUR DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY, ONLY REACHING THE MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH.
WE STAY MOSTLY DRY ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL REGIME CONTINUES
TO SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN THE FLATTENING
RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND BUILDING RIDGE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
MILDER CANADIAN AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE, KEEPING HIGHS IN THE
LOW-TO-MID 80S. WE TO SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MONDAY FROM POTENTIAL NOCTURNAL STORMS
MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA, BUT PRECIP CHANCES ARE ONLY
AROUND 20 PERCENT.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING BACK A MORE ACTIVE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT
WEST. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A TROUGH DIPS OUT OF
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BRINGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SLIGHTLY DIFFER ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THIS FRONT,
WITH SOME STALLING IT ACROSS OUR AREA BRINGING A MORE EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. OTHERS CLEAR IT OUT TO OUR SOUTH
LEADING TO A DRIER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. IN EITHER
CASE, MILDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH COOLER CANADIAN HIGH STAYING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN COVERAGE
OF LATER DEVELOPMENT, SO INCLUDED ONLY -SHRA MENTION FOR NOW,
BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED TS. IN ADDITION, EXPECT SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO BRING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY.
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14-15Z WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THIS
MORNING, BEFORE A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
UPDATE...MCCOY
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...CA
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