092
FXUS63 KOAX 152337
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
637 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A SEVERE STORM OR TWO
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
AND IOWA.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS RETURN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS, WITH ITS CENTER OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD. DRILLING DOWN TO
THE LOCAL AREA, A RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX
ENVIRONMENT, HEADLINED BY AN INCOMING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST, A
SURFACE LOW MOVING TO FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL IOWA, AND ANOTHER
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL IOWA.
THOUGH WE ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT, A
HOLE IN THE CIRRUS OVERHEAD IS LEADING TO INCREASING
DESTABILIZATION AND WARMING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AMIDST
MODEST LIFT IN THE LOWER 300 MB OF THE VERTICAL COLUMN. AN AREA
OF AGITATED CLOUDS NEAR KHSI/KGRI IS LIKELY WHAT SHORT-TERM CAM
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT, WHERE A SMALL SWATH OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. BULK SHEAR VALUES OF NEAR
20 KTS AND DECREASING INSTABILITY AS SURFACE MOISTURE IS MIXED
OUT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL OF ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM,
BUT A GUST TO 60 MPH OR A QUARTER-SIZE HAIL STONE ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. THE COMPETING LIFT/SUBSIDENCE OF NEARBY
SHORTWAVES/MCVS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS AS WELL,
WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIMING BEING 5 PM TO 9 PM ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AS A MCV-DRIVEN CLUSTER OF SCATTERED STORMS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AFTER 2 AM. WE'LL BE ON THE SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MORE HOSTILE TO STORM THE CLUSTER, BUT IT
WON'T TAKE MUCH WAVERING IN THE MCV'S EVENTUAL PATH TO GRAZE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE POSSIBLE. TO
THE NORTH OF THOSE CHANCES, FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE AND CURRENTLY
FAVORS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA FOR SOME PATCHY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO SETTLE IN, BUT ITS PATCHY NATURE COULD
SURPRISE SOME MOTORISTS GETTING UP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF TOMORROW, WE'LL BE SQUARELY BEHIND OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WITH A REFRESHINGLY COOL DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AS
HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA, WITH A GOOD BREEZE OF 10-15 MPH.
MONDAY AND BEYOND:
MONDAY AND TUESDAY SEE THE RETURN OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO THE
FORECAST, WHERE POST-FRONTAL AIR IS SHUNTED BACK NORTH AND EAST AND
DEWPOINTS RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE
MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE RETURNED TO MODEST ZONAL FLOW,
HELPING TO INCREASE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES TO AROUND 30 KTS.
MONDAY'S CHANCES STILL LOOK TO RESIDE IN A SHORTWAVE INCOMING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ACTIVITY TRENDING INTO LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ONLY
INCREASES TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. OUT OF
THE TWO DAYS, TUESDAY SEEMS TO HAVE A HIGHER CEILING BASED ON
THE AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS AMIDST STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT, WITH ML GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AS
SUCH.
STRONG SIGNALS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE FIND OURSELVES ON THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE HIGH-APMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY LOOK TO STAY QUITE COMFORTABLE IN
THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH SOME MINOR RAIN CHANCES
AS WEAK SHORTWAVES OR REMNANTS OF HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY WAFT IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KOMA: A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LOCATED OVER/BETWEEN
KMLE AND KOMA. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN KICKING
OFF ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVING OVER THE TERMINAL. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z ALONG WITH A FEW STRONGER WIND
GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 08Z
AND 13Z. LOW CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY IN THE COVERAGE AND IMPACTS OF
FOG TO THE TERMINAL.
KLNK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE CURRENTLY AT THE TERMINAL.
THERE ARE A FEW WEAK STORMS KICKING OFF BETWEEN KEAR AND KJYR
THAT HAVE HAD STRUGGLED TO GROW IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS
EVENING. A FEW STORMS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF KBIE AND
TRYING TO GET GOING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. NO IMPACTS TO THE
TERMINAL ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED; HOWEVER, A SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT MAY BRING A FEW STORMS TO KLNK. MODEL
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION IS STILL LOW AT THIS TIME.
KOFK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY POP UP BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, BUT WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, THIS MAY HAMPER
CHANCES A BIT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...ANW
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