088
FXUS63 KOAX 170434
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1134 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND A FEW
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, A FEW ISOLATED
TORNADOES, AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY, WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT
OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING. WITH CALM
TO FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES, FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND THE
IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER. A FEW MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO BRING SOME
FOG AS FAR WEST AS LANCASTER AND GAGE COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS
MONDAY MORNING. A FEW AREAS MAY HAVE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO 1 MILE
OR LESS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT, DROPPING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE
MONDAY MORNING. A FEW AREAS MAY WAKE UP TO SOME SHOWERS OR WEAK
STORMS MOVING THROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MOVING INTO A DECENT ENVIRONMENT, THIS FIRST POTENTIAL WAVE
OF STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN WOULD BE
LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY
HAD DECENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. A SECOND WAVE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WITH
THE EARLIER CONVECTION AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL GO DOWN SOME WITH THIS LATER
WAVE OF STORMS.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
TUESDAY AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA
AND IOWA. EXPECT SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE NE/SD
BORDER, RANGING FROM THE MID-70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. AREAS FURTHER
SOUTH WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID-80S. MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE REGION AND DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWESTERN IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OMAHA CWA, WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-
2.0" ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS MAY RESULT
IN SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. SEVERAL AREAS ACROSS THE REGION
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
AND MAY THEREFORE BE MORE PRONE TO FLOODING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL.
AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SEND A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES (30-60% WEDNESDAY; 20-30% THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY NICE FOR AUGUST STANDARDS, REACHING THE
MID-70S TO LOW 80S. TYPICAL HIGHS FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA
ARE IN THE MID-80S. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID-80S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KOFK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 04Z,
BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY DAYBREAK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL AROUND
OR AFTER 22Z AND MOVING INTO THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL BY 00Z
TUESDAY.
KOMA: MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE REGION. HEADING INTO DAYBREAK, PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, WHICH MAY CAUSE
SOME IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL. FOG WITH SOME REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. THE BEST TIMING FOR FOG WILL BE BETWEEN 11Z AND
14Z. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
STORM CHANCES INCREASING AT THE TERMINAL AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
KLNK: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL,
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER TO AT LEAST KAFK. NO FOG IS CURRENTLY
MENTIONED IN PREVAILING CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE BEEN
BRINGING THE FOG FURTHER WEST TO NEAR KLNK BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT A MENTION INTO PREVAILING FOR NOW,
BUT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, MAY MAKE AN ADJUSTMENT FOR THE 06Z
TAF. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AFTER THE END OF THE TAF.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW
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