032
FXUS63 KOAX 170521
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1221 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND A FEW
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, A FEW ISOLATED
TORNADOES, AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY, WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AND NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT
OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING. WITH CALM
TO FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES, FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND THE
IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER. A FEW MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO BRING SOME
FOG AS FAR WEST AS LANCASTER AND GAGE COUNTIES FOR A FEW HOURS
MONDAY MORNING. A FEW AREAS MAY HAVE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO 1 MILE
OR LESS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT, DROPPING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY SUNRISE
MONDAY MORNING. A FEW AREAS MAY WAKE UP TO SOME SHOWERS OR WEAK
STORMS MOVING THROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MOVING INTO A DECENT ENVIRONMENT, THIS FIRST POTENTIAL WAVE
OF STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN WOULD BE
LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY
HAD DECENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. A SECOND WAVE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WITH
THE EARLIER CONVECTION AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL GO DOWN SOME WITH THIS LATER
WAVE OF STORMS.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
TUESDAY AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA
AND IOWA. EXPECT SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE NE/SD
BORDER, RANGING FROM THE MID-70S TO LOW 80S FOR HIGHS. AREAS FURTHER
SOUTH WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID-80S. MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE REGION AND DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWESTERN IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OMAHA CWA, WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW
ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-
2.0" ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS MAY RESULT
IN SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. SEVERAL AREAS ACROSS THE REGION
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
AND MAY THEREFORE BE MORE PRONE TO FLOODING WITH ANY ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL.
AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SEND A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES (30-60% WEDNESDAY; 20-30% THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY NICE FOR AUGUST STANDARDS, REACHING THE
MID-70S TO LOW 80S. TYPICAL HIGHS FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA
ARE IN THE MID-80S. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID-80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING REACHING THE
TAF SITES IS LOW. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, EXPECT SCT CLOUDS
AROUND 5000-7000 FT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
MORNING, BUT STILL MOSTLY STAYING UNDER 10 KTS. SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING OFK COULD BE IMPACTED BY 01Z. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON
HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST STORMS WILL EXTEND BY 06Z, SO DIDN'T
INCLUDE MENTION AT LNK AND OMA FOR NOW.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...CA
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