605
FXUS63 KOAX 180550
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1250 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY
RAIN, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POTENTIAL HAZARDS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
INCREASING INTO THE 80S. PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
A WEAK AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN O'NEAL AND ORD. IN THE
SHORT-TERM, THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD EAST WITH A LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WIND, AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO PERSIST AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
LESS FAVORABLE ACROSS OUR AREA. A SEPARATE SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD
IS ANTICIAPTED LATER TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FARTHER WEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. CLOSER TO OUR AREA, A FEW
RELATIVELY ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN A WEAK
CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. ALL THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS BROAD AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER THE REGION. THESE FEATURES ARE HELPING TO
INITIATE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OVER A SEASONABLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IN
ADDITION, STRONGER WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE
BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA HELPING TO INCREASE EFFECTIVE WIND
SHEAR TO BETWEEN 40-50 KTS. THE COMBINATION OF ALL THESE FACTORS IS
RESULTING IN A COMBINED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY
RAIN, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY, A COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW
BEHIND LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT
SAID, AREAS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA NEAREST THE COLD FRONT MAY SEE
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. AT LEAST SOME RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH, A COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER
DESPITE THIS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
COMPARATIVELY LOWER. OTHERWISE, COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
70S FOR MANY.
WEDNESDAY SEES TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN. OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST
OF THE REGION, BUT THIS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER MAY AGAIN
BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT THIS THREAT IS LOW
CURRENTLY.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND BEYOND, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 80S. THE BROAD PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOES NOT CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS
TIME, THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REGION WITH STEADY TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
IN THE PERIOD, WITH ANOTHER ROUND STILL ON IN THE 10-15Z WINDOW.
THAT SAID, STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
STORMS AT A GIVEN TAF SITE, THOUGH TRENDS ARE TOWARD KEEPING THE
SECOND ROUND SOUTHEAST OF OFK. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF 40-50 KT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND SOME HAIL ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY. OUTSIDE OF STORMS,
EXPECT HIGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING CLOUDS AROUND
2500 TO 5000 FT AGL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT ERRATIC BETWEEN ROUNDS OF STORMS, BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
UPDATE...CHEHAK
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CA
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