614
FXUS63 KOAX 181734
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BEHIND A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
INCREASING INTO THE 80S. PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. CLOSER TO OUR AREA, A FEW
RELATIVELY ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED IN A WEAK
CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. ALL THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING INTO AT
LEAST EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS BROAD AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK
COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER THE REGION. THESE FEATURES ARE HELPING TO
INITIATE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OVER A SEASONABLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IN
ADDITION, STRONGER WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE
BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA HELPING TO INCREASE EFFECTIVE WIND
SHEAR TO BETWEEN 40-50 KTS. THE COMBINATION OF ALL THESE FACTORS IS
RESULTING IN A COMBINED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY
RAIN, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY, A COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW
BEHIND LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THAT
SAID, AREAS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA NEAREST THE COLD FRONT MAY SEE
ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. AT LEAST SOME RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH, A COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER
DESPITE THIS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
COMPARATIVELY LOWER. OTHERWISE, COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
70S FOR MANY.
WEDNESDAY SEES TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN. OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST
OF THE REGION, BUT THIS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER MAY AGAIN
BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT THIS THREAT IS LOW
CURRENTLY.
HEADING INTO THURSDAY AND BEYOND, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 80S. THE BROAD PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOES NOT CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS
TIME, THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REGION WITH STEADY TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT ALL THREE SITES CURRENTLY AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT THAT
CURRENTLY SITS JUST NORTH OF KOFK. ALONG THAT WIND SHIFT
BOUNDARY, MVFR CEILINGS AT FL023 ARE HOLDING ON WITH THE
COVERAGE LIKELY TO DECREASE AS IT SHIFTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND TURN NORTHEASTERLY,
WITH AREAS OF PATCHY FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP FOR 2-3 HOURS AFTER
11Z, WITH KOMA BEING THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
FORECAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING,
MOVING THROUGH KOFK AROUND 12Z BEFORE ARRIVING TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST AT KLNK/KOMA CLOSER TO 16-18Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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