723
FXUS63 KOAX 182316
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
616 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LOW-END POTENTIAL
(5-10% CHANCE) FOR ONE TO BE SEVERE.
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
INCREASING INTO THE 80S. PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES (15-25% CHANCE)
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES RIDGING BEGINNING TO
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW POURING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS. TAKING
A LOOK AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PLACE JUST SOUTH OF
THE NE/SD BORDER REGION INTO NORTHERN IOWA WHILE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHERE
MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE RISES CONTINUE. A SWATH OF SHALLOW
CUMULUS IS IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA, WITH
LITTLE CAPPING OVERHEAD. WIND/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND/HAIL WITH A STORM MODE THAT
WOULD GROW UPSCALE QUICKLY. THOUGH THERE IS NO INHIBITION, WE
ARE RELYING ON MODEST SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO KEEP THE LID ON ANY STORM CHANCES IN
THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
HAVE RECOVERED WELL DESPITE INITIAL CLOUDINESS TODAY, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO PUSH A BIT FURTHER TO INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS CONTINUING TO THE MAIN CONCERN
OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST.
A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST, WITH THAT BOUNDARY
FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS OVER THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL LIFT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
IS TO LEAD TO SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT, SHIFTING EASTWARD LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AND DECAYING WHILE IT DOES SO.
CONVECTIVE REMNANTS FROM IT ALONGSIDE NEW STORM INITIATION REPRESENT
THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LOCALLY, WITH
THE KANSAS ACTION HOLDING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY
THAT COULD GLANCE OUR AREA. AS WE PUSH INTO THE EVENING, THE LLJ
WILL NOSE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, HELPING THE
STORMS INITIATE AND SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. CURRENTLY THE BEST
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE NE/KS BORDER BUT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THE REMAINING SHOWERS WAFTING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST MEANWHILE FAVOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THEY WALK DOWN THE
MAIN THETA-E GRADIENT. ALL IN ALL, THE MORNING CONVECTION HAS
LIMITED OUR CHANCES TO ONLY BEING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY, BUT IT'LL BE CLOSE ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDES.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS
IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA, SPURRED ON BY LEFTOVER LIFT FROM FARTHER
DISPLACED HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION, THOUGH TIMING HAS BEEN SHIFTING
BASED ON HOW OVERNIGHT SHOWERS TRANSPIRE. THOSE CHANCES WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THEIR CEILING WILL BE
LIMITED BY DECREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO THE TIMING DIURNALLY
WITH MARGINALLY-SEVERE WIND AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
BEFORE DIMINISH BY THE EVENING HOURS.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
THURSDAY TAKES A STEP TOWARDS THE QUIETER SIDE OF THE PATTERN WITH
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST TAKING OVER. WE'LL SEE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES THAT PEAK FRIDAY (MID-TO-UPPER 80S),
WAVERING A BIT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MINOR RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO
DOT THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH NO PARTICULAR DAY BEING A HOME
RUN FOR RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS, MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST, START
THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS
BORDER. LOCAL AVIATION IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS. WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST TO
FORM BETWEEN 11-14Z OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MVFR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHEAST. THE STRONGEST OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA, BUT WEAKER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT OFK AND LNK DURING THE MORNING HOURS
(10-16Z). OTHER AREAS MAY SEE IMPACTS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX POTENTIALLY LIMITING ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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