940
FXUS63 KOAX 200445
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY RAIN.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (15-30%) OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE
WEATHER, INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
- TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE 70S AND 80S WITH PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SEVERE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
A POWERFUL MCS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
IN IT'S WAKE A COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS HAS FILLED IN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO A
QUIET AND QUIESCENT NIGHT. THESE FACTORS ON TOP OF RECENT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST RAINFALL. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 60S BY
SUNRISE.
THE QUIET WEATHER BEGINS THE DAY ON THURSDAY, BUT A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NOSE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MID-
AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY AND A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE A POTENT
ENVIRONMENT TO WORK WITH. LONG, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. ANY
SUPERCELLS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST MUCH
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS, MOST WILL NOT SEE ANY WEATHER AND CAN EXPECT A
QUIET AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S.
FRIDAY SEES TEMPERATURES A TOUCH WARMER THAN THURSDAY AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY
ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA,
BUT THESE CHANCES ARE LOW (15-30%) AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL INTO
THE 70S DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS
SEASONABLY STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN CHANGES
LITTLE. A GRADUAL EBB AND FLOW BETWEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH LESS CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH INCREASED CLOUDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THE MAIN STORY. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO
FURTHER ERASE ANY LONG-STANDING RAINFALL DEFICITS AND FURTHER
ADD TO AREAS WITH A SURPLUS ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND A COLD FRONT SETS IN.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 11-14Z.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL LIKELY BE GREATER WITH WESTERN EXTENT
DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE FORECAST
AT OFK AND LNK WITH LESSER REDUCTIONS AT OMA. ISOLATED DENSE FOG
MAY BRIEFLY CAUSE SEVERE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN AVIATION IMPACTS IS LOW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME AFTER
14Z WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BACKING AROUND TO THE SOUTH.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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