314
FXUS63 KOAX 210413
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1113 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S
WITH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE
FRONT JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THESE
STORMS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED, BUT THE FRONT GRADUALLY SLIDES
SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOKING AT THE BROAD PICTURE,
WE MAINTAIN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, SEVERAL OF THESE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES CAN BE SEEN UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE APPROACHING
THE AREA AS THE FRONT SINKS INTO EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS
SHOULD HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED AT FIRST,
BUT A RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY HELP
THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THE STRONGEST OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE SEVERE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF RAIN CHANCES, ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S IS ANTICIPATED.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL DUE TO EARLIER
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT NOT ZERO. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
SATURDAY MAY BE THE BEST DAY OF THE FORECAST AS OUR AREA WILL
FALL BETWEEN TWO DISTURBANCES. THE END RESULT IS COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ENJOY THIS WEATHER WHILE
IT LASTS AS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
ACTIVE.
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, A CONTINUATION OF OUR BROAD WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED. STARTING ON SUNDAY, OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVER THE AREA BRINGING RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO
THE REGION. WHILE WE DON'T HAVE THE EXACT DETAILS, A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
LIKELY. MONDAY MAY BE ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES HEADING TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. OUTSIDE OF PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
THE UPPER 70S AND 80S DEPENDING UPON CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO APPROACH
ANY TAF SITES IN THE AREA. PATCHY, SHALLOW FOG MAY DEVELOP
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON THE AMOUNT OF FOG COVERAGE AND AVIATION IMPACTS.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IF VISIBILITY IMPACTS FROM FOG APPEAR
MORE LIKELY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING AS A
WEAK FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION, BUT EXACT DETAILS
ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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