667
FXUS63 KOAX 210508
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1208 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S
WITH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE
FRONT JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THESE
STORMS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED, BUT THE FRONT GRADUALLY SLIDES
SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOKING AT THE BROAD PICTURE,
WE MAINTAIN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, SEVERAL OF THESE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES CAN BE SEEN UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE APPROACHING
THE AREA AS THE FRONT SINKS INTO EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS
SHOULD HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED AT FIRST,
BUT A RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY HELP
THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THE STRONGEST OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE SEVERE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF RAIN CHANCES, ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S IS ANTICIPATED.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL DUE TO EARLIER
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT NOT ZERO. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
SATURDAY MAY BE THE BEST DAY OF THE FORECAST AS OUR AREA WILL
FALL BETWEEN TWO DISTURBANCES. THE END RESULT IS COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ENJOY THIS WEATHER WHILE
IT LASTS AS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
ACTIVE.
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, A CONTINUATION OF OUR BROAD WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED. STARTING ON SUNDAY, OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVER THE AREA BRINGING RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO
THE REGION. WHILE WE DON'T HAVE THE EXACT DETAILS, A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
LIKELY. MONDAY MAY BE ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES HEADING TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. OUTSIDE OF PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
THE UPPER 70S AND 80S DEPENDING UPON CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND SUNRISE. THERE IS
A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AS WELL BETWEEN 12Z
AND 16Z; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING IS LOW AT
THIS TIME. HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON, KLNK/KOMA MAY GET CLIPPED
WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM, BUT AGAIN, COVERAGE OF STORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SPOTTY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER ANY
STORMS ARE ABLE TO GET GOING AND DIRECTLY IMPACT ONE OF THE
TERMINALS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...ANW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page