230
FXUS63 KOAX 211732
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S
WITH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEVERE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS HAS BECOME MORE
PESSIMISTIC TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS
MORNING. AS A RESULT, WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE MORNING. CAN'T RULE OUT A 15-20% CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP, BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE AFTERNOON EVENING.
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT'S POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY HAS
ALSO DECREASED SLIGHTLY. CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A FEW STORMS,
BUT THIS IS LOOKING A LITTLE LESS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE
FRONT JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THESE
STORMS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED, BUT THE FRONT GRADUALLY SLIDES
SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOKING AT THE BROAD PICTURE,
WE MAINTAIN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR NEARLY DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, SEVERAL OF THESE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCES CAN BE SEEN UPSTREAM OF OUR AREA.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL BE APPROACHING
THE AREA AS THE FRONT SINKS INTO EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS
SHOULD HELP INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE RELATIVELY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED AT FIRST,
BUT A RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY HELP
THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THE STRONGEST OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE SEVERE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF RAIN CHANCES, ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S IS ANTICIPATED.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL DUE TO EARLIER
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE LOWER WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT NOT ZERO. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
SATURDAY MAY BE THE BEST DAY OF THE FORECAST AS OUR AREA WILL
FALL BETWEEN TWO DISTURBANCES. THE END RESULT IS COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ENJOY THIS WEATHER WHILE
IT LASTS AS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
ACTIVE.
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, A CONTINUATION OF OUR BROAD WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED. STARTING ON SUNDAY, OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVER THE AREA BRINGING RENEWED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO
THE REGION. WHILE WE DON'T HAVE THE EXACT DETAILS, A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
LIKELY. MONDAY MAY BE ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES HEADING TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. OUTSIDE OF PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
THE UPPER 70S AND 80S DEPENDING UPON CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
1731Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF
STORMS IS SEEN JUST WEST OF THE KOFK TERMINAL, AND SHOULD ARRIVE
THERE WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS. ANOTHER DECAYING CLUSTER IS
SEEN JUST SOUTHWEST OF KOMA AND NORTHEAST OF KLNK. AT THIS
TIME, CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THESE STORMS TO AFFECT TERMINALS,
BUT WILL MAKE AMENDMENTS IF NEEDED. MORE REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS COULD OCCUR AFTER 07Z AND CLIP KOFK AND KLNK, BUT CHANCES
REMAIN LESS THAN 30%. WINDS REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS FOR THE
DURATION OF THE TAF CYCLE, BECOMING NORTH NORTHEAST BY THE
MORNING HOURS. COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP AT KOMA BY 11Z, BUT
CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW (10%) FOR INCLUSION IN TAF.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
UPDATE...ANW
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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